Arizona State
Better than the record will show
They rate No. 34 in strength and only No. 50 in projected wins — a 16-spot gap paid entirely at the schedule's window, so 7-5 will read worse than they play.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Fringe preseason caseArizona State opens at No. 34, just outside the national Top 25, and No. 6 in the Big 12. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
0.1 behind No. 33 PittsburghLevel with No. 35 Louisville - 02
02What's helping them?
- Solid Team Strength63.7
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- Nothing on the ledger yet
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
Arizona State is 0.1 Verdict points behind No. 33 Pittsburgh — that's the gap to close.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So Far1-01 of 12 games completeProjected Finish7-526% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins7.0Bowl Odds85%Playoff Odds2%90% Range5-7 to 9-3Favored in 7 of the 11 still to play, yet 5 of the 11 could fall either way — which is why the likeliest finish is 7-5, at 26%.
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
at No. 9 Texas A&MWeek 2 · Away · Verdict win probability 26%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board. Verdict has them at 26%, which makes a win the strongest evidence available this early.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Sam Leavitt (1,628 passing yards), Raleek Brown (1,141 rushing yards), Jordyn Tyson (711 receiving yards), Jordan Crook (101 tackles) and Keyshaun Elliott (7 sacks) are gone.
Arizona State's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
None of last season's statistical leaders are on the current roster — this case is being made by new names.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
They finished 8-4 in 2025, scoring 296 and allowing 276: a 1.7-point average margin.2025
- Arizona State went shopping: 24 in, top of the class a 0.95-rated WR out of Colorado.2026 transfer portal
- A 0.94-rated WR from Boston College and a 0.91-rated LB from Colorado State arrived alongside him.2026 transfer portal
- A 0.98-rated QB left to LSU — the one they will miss first.2026 transfer portal
- 4 players went to the NFL Draft, and that production has to come from somewhere.2026
- They have to rebuild around 21 departures.2026 transfer portal
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for Arizona State at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
6 home dates, 5 road trips and 1 on neutral turf — 3 of them against top-25 teams.
- They travel to #6 Texas Tech in Week 7.
- Week 2 is a trip to #9 Texas A&M.
- Week 9 sends them to #25 BYU.
- Week 1 begins it, at home against Morgan State.
- Week 13 ends it, on the road at Arizona.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Selected coverage from trusted sources. Opens at the original publisher.
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #34?
Weigh the evidence and rule on Arizona State's current case.
The arguments about Arizona State
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against Arizona
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 7 at Texas Tech
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 2 at Texas A&M
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test Arizona State's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 34. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.