Baylor
A lot better than the record will show
They rate No. 51 in strength and only No. 89 in projected wins — a 38-spot gap paid entirely at the schedule's window, so 6-6 will read worse than they play.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Fringe preseason caseBaylor opens at No. 51, in the middle of the national field, and No. 11 in the Big 12. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
0.6 behind No. 50 Washington State0.2 clear of No. 52 Kansas - 02
02What's helping them?
- Solid Team Strength57.3
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- The case awaits its first evidence
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
Baylor is 0.6 Verdict points behind No. 50 Washington State — that's the gap to close.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So FarNo games playedThe record is blank until the first kickoffProjected Finish6-625% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins5.8Bowl Odds57%Playoff Odds<1%90% Range3-9 to 8-4Favored in 3 of 12. Weigh all 12 outcomes, including 6 genuine toss-ups, and it lands on 6-6 (25%).
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
vs No. 19 AuburnWeek 1 · Neutral · Verdict win probability 29%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board. Verdict has them at 29%, which makes a win the strongest evidence available this early.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Sawyer Robertson (3,681 passing yards), Bryson Washington (788 rushing yards), Josh Cameron (872 receiving yards), Keaton Thomas (99 tackles) and Emar'Rion Winston (4 sacks) are gone.
Baylor's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
None of last season's statistical leaders are on the current roster — this case is being made by new names.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
5-7 in 2025, scoring 373 and allowing 391, on the wrong side of a 1.5-point margin.2025
- 31 portal additions, the loudest a 0.93-rated QB out of Florida.2026 transfer portal
- They did not stop there: a 0.92-rated DL from Indiana and a 0.88-rated EDGE from Southern Miss.2026 transfer portal
- They have to rebuild around 32 departures.2026 transfer portal
- The 2025 team lost the scoreboard by 1.5 a night. Nothing since has changed that on the field.2025
- 2 players off to the NFL, which is real production out of the building.2026
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for Baylor at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
12 games — 6 at home, 5 on the road, 1 on neutral turf, and 4 of them against top-25 teams. They leave home for 2 straight from Week 8.
- They host #6 Texas Tech in Week 12.
- Week 1 puts #19 Auburn on neutral turf.
- #23 TCU comes to them in Week 7.
- They finish Week 13 on the road at Houston.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #51?
Weigh the evidence and rule on Baylor's current case.
The arguments about Baylor
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against TCU
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 11 at BYU
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 12 vs Texas Tech
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test Baylor's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 51. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.
