Central Michigan
The record will look better than they are
They sit No. 104 in strength but No. 79 in projected wins — a 25-spot gap the slate is paying for, so 6-6 will read better than they play.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Building a caseCentral Michigan opens at No. 104, near the foot of the national field, and No. 5 in the MAC. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
Level with No. 103 Louisiana Tech0.5 clear of No. 105 Liberty - 02
02What's helping them?
- Developing Team Strength34.2
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- Nothing on the ledger yet
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
Central Michigan is dead level with No. 103 Louisiana Tech on Verdict Score — the next result breaks the tie.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So FarNo games playedThe record is blank until the first kickoffProjected Finish6-625% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins6.1Bowl Odds65%Playoff Odds<1%90% Range4-8 to 9-3Favored in 6 of 12
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
at New MexicoWeek 1 · Away · Verdict win probability 49%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board. Verdict has them at 49%, which makes a win the strongest evidence available this early.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Langston Lewis is back at WR after 596 receiving yards (43 rec, 3 TD). Joey Labas (1,854 passing yards), Nahree Biggins (540 rushing yards), Jordan Kwiatkowski (112 tackles) and Michael Heldman (11.5 sacks) are gone.
Central Michigan's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
2025 ended 7-5, scoring 286 and allowing 272 — outscoring people by 1.2 a game.2025
- Central Michigan went shopping: 12 in, top of the class a 0.84-rated S out of Wyoming.2026 transfer portal
- A 0.83-rated OT from Eastern Illinois and a 0.82-rated S from Northern Colorado arrived alongside him.2026 transfer portal
- 17 left and only 12 arrived — 5 fewer bodies than they started with.2026 transfer portal
- A 0.87-rated CB is gone to Northwestern.2026 transfer portal
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for Central Michigan at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
5 of the 12 are away from home, 1 on neutral turf, and one of them against a top-25 team. A 2-game road run opens in Week 12.
- Week 4 at #4 Miami is the road test.
- Week 7 is #83 Western Michigan, at home.
- Week 6 is a trip to #85 Ohio.
- Week 1 begins it, on the road at New Mexico.
- Week 13 ends it, on the road at Ball State.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #104?
Weigh the evidence and rule on Central Michigan's current case.
The arguments about Central Michigan
All arguments →“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against Western Michigan
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 4 at Miami
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 6 at Ohio
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
“Give them the same circumstances and then compare them.”
On Eastern Michigan's schedule
“They're not going 10-2.”
Every game, one at a time
Test Central Michigan's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 104. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.