Coastal Carolina
The record will look better than they are
No. 95 in team strength, No. 62 in projected wins. The schedule is doing the heavy lifting across that 33-spot gap, so 6-6 will read better than they play.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Building a caseCoastal Carolina opens at No. 95, in the bottom half of the field, and No. 5 in the Sun Belt. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
0.1 behind No. 94 FIU0.4 clear of No. 96 Appalachian State - 02
02What's helping them?
- Developing Team Strength36.8
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- The case awaits its first evidence
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
Coastal Carolina is 0.1 Verdict points behind No. 94 FIU — that's the gap to close.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So FarNo games playedThe record is blank until the first kickoffProjected Finish6-624% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins6.5Bowl Odds73%Playoff Odds<1%90% Range4-8 to 9-3Favored in 8 of 12. Weigh all 12 outcomes, including 8 genuine toss-ups, and it lands on 6-6 (24%).
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
at West VirginiaWeek 1 · Away · Verdict win probability 22%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board. Verdict has them at 22%, which makes a win the strongest evidence available this early.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Tad Hudson (1,253 passing yards), Ja'Vin Simpkins (590 rushing yards), Bryson Graves (330 receiving yards), Xamarion Gordon (62 tackles) and Ezekiel Durham-Campbell (5.5 sacks) are gone.
Coastal Carolina's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
None of last season's statistical leaders are on the current roster — this case is being made by new names.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
2025 ended 5-5, scoring 261 and allowing 369 — outscored by 10.8 a game.2025
- Only two Sun Belt teams added more than their 33 — the best a 0.86-rated S from South Dakota State.2026 transfer portal
- They did not stop there: a 0.86-rated WR from Missouri State and a 0.86-rated QB from Arkansas.2026 transfer portal
- 43 left and only 33 arrived — 10 fewer bodies than they started with.2026 transfer portal
- Gone to Baylor: a 0.86-rated DL, the highest-rated name to leave.2026 transfer portal
- 2025 ended 5-5, outscored by 10.8 a game — the hole starts there.2025
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for Coastal Carolina at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
12 games — 6 at home, 6 on the road, and none of them against the top 25. From Week 12 they play 2 straight on somebody else's field.
- Week 1 is a trip to #62 West Virginia.
- They travel to #71 James Madison in Week 13.
- They host #75 Old Dominion in Week 10.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #95?
Weigh the evidence and rule on Coastal Carolina's current case.
The arguments about Coastal Carolina
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against Appalachian State
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 1 at West Virginia
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 13 at James Madison
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test Coastal Carolina's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 95. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.