Florida
A lot better than the record will show
No. 22 in team strength, No. 64 in projected wins. That 42-spot gap is the schedule, not the team, so 6-6 will read worse than they play.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Solid preseason caseFlorida opens on the Top 25 bubble at No. 22, and No. 11 in the SEC. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
0.9 behind No. 21 Washington1.0 clear of No. 23 TCU - 02
02What's helping them?
- Solid Team Strength69.4
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- The case awaits its first evidence
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
Florida is 0.9 Verdict points behind No. 21 Washington — that's the gap to close.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So FarNo games playedThe record is blank until the first kickoffProjected Finish6-624% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins6.4Bowl Odds73%Playoff Odds4%90% Range4-8 to 9-3Favored in 6 of 12
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
vs Florida AtlanticWeek 1 · Home · Verdict win probability 89%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board. Verdict projects a comfortable win, so a loss here would be the first genuine damage to the case.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Jadan Baugh is back at RB after 1,170 rushing yards (8 TD). Vernell Brown III (524 receiving yards), Myles Graham (76 tackles) and Jayden Woods (3.5 sacks) return with him. D.J. Lagway (2,264 passing yards) is gone.
Florida's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
2025 ended 3-8, scoring 204 and allowing 288 — outscored by 7.6 a game.2025
- They restocked — 27 in, headlined by a 0.94-rated WR out of Auburn.2026 transfer portal
- They did not stop there: a 0.89-rated RB from East Carolina and a 0.89-rated QB from Georgia Tech.2026 transfer portal
- The most expensive loss is a 0.96-rated EDGE.2026 transfer portal
- Seven to the NFL Draft — replacing that is the whole question.2026
- 2025 ended 3-8, outscored by 7.6 a game — the hole starts there.2025
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for Florida at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
5 of the 12 are away from home, 1 on neutral turf, and 7 of them against top-25 teams.
- Week 9 puts #2 Georgia on neutral turf.
- Week 7 at #8 Texas is the road test.
- Week 4 is #12 Ole Miss, at home.
- The season starts Week 1 at home against FAU.
- The finale is Week 13, on the road at Florida State.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #22?
Weigh the evidence and rule on Florida's current case.
The arguments about Florida
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against Florida State
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 7 at Texas
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 9 on neutral turf vs Georgia
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test Florida's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 22. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.