Indiana
The record will tell the truth
No. 10 in team strength, No. 12 in projected wins, which is the same team twice. No argument to make.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Solid preseason caseIndiana opens inside the projected 12-team playoff field at No. 10, and No. 3 in the Big Ten. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
0.2 behind No. 9 Texas A&MLevel with No. 11 Utah - 02
02What's helping them?
- Strong Team Strength77.0
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- No earned résumé yet
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
Indiana is 0.2 Verdict points behind No. 9 Texas A&M — that's the gap to close.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So FarNo games playedThe record is blank until the first kickoffProjected Finish9-328% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins8.6Bowl Odds99%Playoff Odds35%90% Range6-6 to 11-1Favored in 10 of 12 — but 3 of those 12 games are close enough to go either way, so weighing every outcome the likeliest finish is 9-3 (28%).
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
vs North TexasWeek 1 · Home · Verdict win probability 83%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board. Verdict projects a comfortable win, so a loss here would be the first genuine damage to the case.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Rolijah Hardy is back at LB after 103 tackles and 8 sacks (15 TFL, 8 sacks). Fernando Mendoza (3,535 passing yards), Roman Hemby (1,120 rushing yards) and Omar Cooper Jr. (961 receiving yards) are gone.
Indiana's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
Last time out: 12-0, scoring 472 and allowing 141, ahead by 27.6 a game on average.2025
- The best scoring margin in the Big Ten last season, at 27.6 a game.2025
- 17 arrivals, and the one worth arguing about is a 0.94-rated WR from Michigan State.2026 transfer portal
- There is depth to the class too — a 0.94-rated EDGE from Kansas State and a 0.93-rated QB from TCU.2026 transfer portal
- The Draft took 8. Somebody new has to do those jobs.2026
- A 0.92-rated DL left to Baylor — the one they will miss first.2026 transfer portal
- 16 walked out, though 17 came the other way — a net gain of 1.2026 transfer portal
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for Indiana at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
12 games — 8 at home, 4 on the road, and 4 of them against top-25 teams. The schedule sends them out for 2 in a row in Week 5.
- Week 7 brings #1 Ohio State to town.
- Week 8 is a trip to #14 Michigan.
- #18 USC comes to them in Week 11.
- It opens Week 1 at home against North Texas.
- It closes Week 13 at home against Purdue.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Selected coverage from trusted sources. Opens at the original publisher.
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #10?
Weigh the evidence and rule on Indiana's current case.
The arguments about Indiana
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against Purdue
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 8 at Michigan
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 7 vs Ohio State
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test Indiana's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 10. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.
