Kent State
The record will tell the truth
No. 116 in team strength, No. 119 in projected wins, which is the same team twice. No argument to make.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Building a caseKent State opens at No. 116, near the foot of the national field, and No. 9 in the MAC. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
0.1 behind No. 115 Nevada0.2 clear of No. 117 San Jose State - 02
02What's helping them?
- Developing Team Strength30.1
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- No earned résumé yet
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
Kent State is 0.1 Verdict points behind No. 115 Nevada — that's the gap to close.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So FarNo games playedThe record is blank until the first kickoffProjected Finish5-726% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins4.7Bowl Odds29%Playoff Odds<1%90% Range2-10 to 7-5Favored in 3 of 12 — with 7 of the 12 near coin-flips, the likeliest finish comes out 5-7 at 26%.
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
at South CarolinaWeek 1 · Away · Verdict win probability 9%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board. Verdict has them at 9%, which makes a win the strongest evidence available this early.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Dru Deshields is back at QB after 2,030 passing yards (18 TD, 3 INT). Gavin Garcia (647 rushing yards), Cade Wolford (509 receiving yards), Mason Woods (94 tackles) and Jamond Mathis (6 sacks) are gone.
Kent State's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
They went 5-6 in 2025 and lost the scoreboard by 9.5 a game, scoring 255 and allowing 359.2025
- Kent State went shopping: 11 in, top of the class a 0.84-rated CB out of Pittsburgh.2026 transfer portal
- There is depth to the class too — a 0.84-rated LB from Coastal Carolina and a 0.84-rated LB from Kentucky.2026 transfer portal
- Cincinnati got the best of it — a 0.9-rated WR.2026 transfer portal
- 15 out, 11 back in — turnover on that scale usually shows up somewhere.2026 transfer portal
- 2025 ended 5-6, outscored by 9.5 a game — the hole starts there.2025
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for Kent State at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
7 of the 12 are away from home, and one of them against a top-25 team. Two consecutive road games begin in Week 6.
- They travel to #1 Ohio State in Week 3.
- Week 1 sends them to #26 South Carolina.
- They travel to #32 USF in Week 7.
- Week 13 ends it, on the road at Eastern Michigan.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #116?
Weigh the evidence and rule on Kent State's current case.
The arguments about Kent State
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against Akron
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 3 at Ohio State
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 1 at South Carolina
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test Kent State's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 116. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.