Maryland
Better than the record will show
They rate No. 60 in strength and only No. 86 in projected wins — a 26-spot gap paid entirely at the schedule's window, so 6-6 will read worse than they play.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Building a caseMaryland opens at No. 60, in the middle of the national field, and No. 14 in the Big Ten. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
0.3 behind No. 59 East Carolina0.4 clear of No. 61 Northwestern - 02
02What's helping them?
- Developing Team Strength54.5
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- No earned résumé yet
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
Maryland is 0.3 Verdict points behind No. 59 East Carolina — that's the gap to close.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So Far1-01 of 12 games completeProjected Finish6-626% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins5.9Bowl Odds60%Playoff Odds<1%90% Range3-9 to 8-4Favored in 6 of the 11 still to play, yet 6 of the 11 could fall either way — which is why the likeliest finish is 6-6, at 26%.
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
at UConnWeek 2 · Away · Verdict win probability 67%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Malik Washington is back at QB after 2,963 passing yards (17 TD, 9 INT). DeJuan Williams (501 rushing yards), Daniel Wingate (102 tackles) and Sidney Stewart (7 sacks) return with him. Shaleak Knotts (717 receiving yards) is gone.
Maryland's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
They went 4-8 in 2025 and lost the scoreboard by 3.0 a game, scoring 282 and allowing 318.2025
- Best thing they did all offseason: a 0.88-rated DL in from Texas, part of a 14-man haul.2026 transfer portal
- Also in the door: a 0.87-rated WR from Old Dominion and a 0.86-rated DL from Washington.2026 transfer portal
- A 0.92-rated IOL is gone to LSU.2026 transfer portal
- 16 out, 14 back in — turnover on that scale usually shows up somewhere.2026 transfer portal
- 1 player went to the NFL Draft, and that production has to come from somewhere.2026
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for Maryland at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
12 on the schedule with 3 of them against top-25 teams — 7 home, 5 away. A 2-game road run opens in Week 5.
- Week 6 is a trip to #1 Ohio State.
- #15 Penn State comes to them in Week 13.
- They travel to #18 USC in Week 12.
- Week 1 begins it, at home against Hampton.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #60?
Weigh the evidence and rule on Maryland's current case.
The arguments about Maryland
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against Rutgers
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 6 at Ohio State
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 12 at USC
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test Maryland's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 60. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.
