Massachusetts
The record will tell the truth
No. 138 in team strength, No. 137 in projected wins. The schedule is not tilting this one either way.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Building a caseMassachusetts opens at No. 138 of 138 — the bottom of the board, and No. 13 in the MAC. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
7.4 behind No. 137 Sam Houston - 02
02What's helping them?
- Developing Team Strength5.5
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- No earned résumé yet
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
Massachusetts is 7.4 Verdict points behind No. 137 Sam Houston — that's the gap to close.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So FarNo games playedThe record is blank until the first kickoffProjected Finish3-931% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins3.0Bowl Odds1%Playoff Odds<1%90% Range1-11 to 5-7Favored in 2 of 12 — the arithmetic of 12 games says the single likeliest finish is 3-9, at 31%.
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
at RutgersWeek 1 · Away · Verdict win probability 4%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board. Verdict has them at 4%, which makes a win the strongest evidence available this early.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Tyler Martin is back at LB after 97 tackles (3 TFL). AJ Hairston (957 passing yards), Brandon Hood (368 rushing yards), Jacquon Gibson (616 receiving yards) and Marques White (5 sacks) are gone.
Massachusetts's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
They went 0-12 in 2025 and lost the scoreboard by 27.5 a game, scoring 133 and allowing 463.2025
- Massachusetts went shopping: 22 in, top of the class a 0.85-rated EDGE out of Saint Francis (PA).2026 transfer portal
- A 0.85-rated LB from Saint Francis (PA) and a 0.85-rated IOL from Colorado State arrived alongside him.2026 transfer portal
- 19 players left through the portal — 22 in, 19 out.2026 transfer portal
- 2025 ended 0-12, outscored by 27.5 a game — the hole starts there.2025
- A 0.86-rated WR is gone to Virginia.2026 transfer portal
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for Massachusetts at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
12 on the schedule with none of them against the top 25 — 6 home, 6 away. From Week 7 they play 2 straight on somebody else's field.
- Week 1 sends them to #53 Rutgers.
- Week 11 at #67 Toledo is the road test.
- #88 Miami (OH) comes to them in Week 6.
- Week 13 ends it, on the road at Bowling Green.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #138?
Weigh the evidence and rule on Massachusetts's current case.
The arguments about Massachusetts
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against UConn
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 1 at Rutgers
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 11 at Toledo
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test Massachusetts's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 138. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.
