Miami (OH)
The record is going to flatter them
No. 88 in team strength, No. 51 in projected wins — a 37-spot gap. The wins are real, but the schedule is handing them over, so 7-5 will read better than they play.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Building a caseMiami (OH) opens at No. 88, in the bottom half of the field, and No. 4 in the MAC. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
0.1 behind No. 87 UTSA0.6 clear of No. 89 Southern Miss - 02
02What's helping them?
- Developing Team Strength40.6
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- Nothing on the ledger yet
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
Miami (OH) is 0.1 Verdict points behind No. 87 UTSA — that's the gap to close.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So FarNo games playedThe record is blank until the first kickoffProjected Finish7-526% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins7.0Bowl Odds84%Playoff Odds<1%90% Range5-7 to 9-3Favored in 9 of 12 — but 5 of those 12 games are close enough to go either way, so weighing every outcome the likeliest finish is 7-5 (26%).
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
at PittsburghWeek 1 · Away · Verdict win probability 16%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board. Verdict has them at 16%, which makes a win the strongest evidence available this early.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Dequan Finn (1,451 passing yards), Jordan Brunson (767 rushing yards), Kamryn Perry (976 receiving yards), Eli Blakey (118 tackles) and Adam Trick (8 sacks) are gone.
Miami (OH)'s 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
None of last season's statistical leaders are on the current roster — this case is being made by new names.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
Last time out: 6-5, scoring 288 and allowing 269, ahead by 1.7 a game on average.2025
- Best thing they did all offseason: a 0.86-rated EDGE in from Cincinnati, part of a 16-man haul.2026 transfer portal
- Also in the door: a 0.86-rated IOL from Ohio State and a 0.86-rated WR from Ohio State.2026 transfer portal
- A 0.9-rated EDGE left to Texas Tech — the one they will miss first.2026 transfer portal
- 1 player went to the NFL Draft, and that production has to come from somewhere.2026
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for Miami (OH) at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
12 games — 6 at home, 6 on the road, and none of them against the top 25. Week 12 starts the hard part: 2 in a row away from home.
- Week 1 sends them to #33 Pittsburgh.
- They travel to #48 Cincinnati in Week 3.
- Week 13 is a trip to #83 Western Michigan.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #88?
Weigh the evidence and rule on Miami (OH)'s current case.
The arguments about Miami (OH)
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against Cincinnati
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 1 at Pittsburgh
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 3 at Cincinnati
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test Miami (OH)'s case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 88. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.