Oklahoma State
A lot better than the record will show
No. 77 in team strength, No. 131 in projected wins. That 54-spot gap is the schedule, not the team, so 4-8 will read worse than they play.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Building a caseOklahoma State opens at No. 77, in the bottom half of the field, and No. 16 in the Big 12. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
0.1 behind No. 76 Boston College0.3 clear of No. 78 Syracuse - 02
02What's helping them?
- Developing Team Strength44.1
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- Nothing on the ledger yet
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
Oklahoma State is 0.1 Verdict points behind No. 76 Boston College — that's the gap to close.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So FarNo games playedThe record is blank until the first kickoffProjected Finish4-828% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins4.1Bowl Odds16%Playoff Odds<1%90% Range2-10 to 7-5Favored in 2 of 12 — but 4 of those 12 games are close enough to go either way, so weighing every outcome the likeliest finish is 4-8 (28%).
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
at TulsaWeek 1 · Away · Verdict win probability 60%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Zane Flores (1,454 passing yards), Rodney Fields Jr. (614 rushing yards), Gavin Freeman (481 receiving yards), Parker Robertson (77 tackles) and Wendell Gregory (4 sacks) are gone.
Oklahoma State's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
None of last season's statistical leaders are on the current roster — this case is being made by new names.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
They went 1-10 in 2025 and lost the scoreboard by 17.1 a game, scoring 170 and allowing 358.2025
- Best thing they did all offseason: a 0.98-rated QB in from North Texas, part of a 55-man haul.2026 transfer portal
- A 0.94-rated RB from North Texas and a 0.93-rated WR from North Texas arrived alongside him.2026 transfer portal
- 65 out, 55 back in — turnover on that scale usually shows up somewhere.2026 transfer portal
- A 0.93-rated EDGE left to Kansas State — the one they will miss first.2026 transfer portal
- 2025 ended 1-10, outscored by 17.1 a game — the hole starts there.2025
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for Oklahoma State at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
The slate runs 12 games, 2 of them against top-25 teams. 6 of them are at home. Two consecutive road games begin in Week 9.
- #3 Oregon comes to them in Week 2.
- They host #6 Texas Tech in Week 11.
- Week 9 sends them to #30 Iowa State.
- Week 1 begins it, on the road at Tulsa.
- Week 13 ends it, at home against Kansas.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #77?
Weigh the evidence and rule on Oklahoma State's current case.
The arguments about Oklahoma State
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against Oklahoma
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 9 at Iowa State
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 2 vs Oregon
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test Oklahoma State's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 77. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.