South Carolina
A lot better than the record will show
No. 26 in team strength, No. 78 in projected wins — a 52-spot gap. The schedule takes games off this team that a softer slate would have handed them, so 6-6 will read worse than they play.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Fringe preseason caseSouth Carolina opens at No. 26, just outside the national Top 25, and No. 12 in the SEC. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
0.2 behind No. 25 BYU0.1 clear of No. 27 Illinois - 02
02What's helping them?
- Solid Team Strength65.8
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- The case awaits its first evidence
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
South Carolina is 0.2 Verdict points behind No. 25 BYU — that's the gap to close.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So FarNo games playedThe record is blank until the first kickoffProjected Finish6-626% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins6.1Bowl Odds65%Playoff Odds1%90% Range4-8 to 9-3Favored in 4 of 12. 7 of the 12 are coin-flips though, and once every outcome is weighed 6-6 is the likeliest finish at 26%.
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
vs Kent StateWeek 1 · Home · Verdict win probability 91%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board. Verdict projects a comfortable win, so a loss here would be the first genuine damage to the case.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Lanorris Sellers is back at QB after 2,437 passing yards (13 TD, 8 INT). Nyck Harbor (618 receiving yards) returns with him. Rahsul Faison (470 rushing yards), DQ Smith (64 tackles) and Bryan Thomas Jr. (7 sacks) are gone.
South Carolina's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
The 2025 ledger reads 4-8, scoring 272 and allowing 265, a 0.6-point margin per game.2025
- A 0.94-rated OT out of NC State fronts a 25-man portal class.2026 transfer portal
- Add a 0.93-rated DL from Illinois and a 0.89-rated EDGE from Tennessee to the haul.2026 transfer portal
- 3 players off to the NFL, which is real production out of the building.2026
- 24 players left through the portal — 25 in, 24 out.2026 transfer portal
- The most expensive loss is a 0.92-rated WR, now at Miami.2026 transfer portal
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for South Carolina at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
5 of the 12 are away from home, and 6 of them against top-25 teams.
- They host #2 Georgia in Week 12.
- Week 4 sends them to #5 Alabama.
- #9 Texas A&M comes to them in Week 10.
- They start Week 1 at home against Kent State.
- They finish Week 13 on the road at Clemson.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Selected coverage from trusted sources. Opens at the original publisher.
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #26?
Weigh the evidence and rule on South Carolina's current case.
The arguments about South Carolina
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against Clemson
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 4 at Alabama
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 12 vs Georgia
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test South Carolina's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 26. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.