Tulane
The record is going to flatter them
No. 55 in team strength, No. 18 in projected wins. The schedule is doing the heavy lifting across that 37-spot gap, so 8-4 will read better than they play.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Fringe preseason caseTulane opens at No. 55, in the middle of the national field, and No. 3 in the American. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
0.2 behind No. 54 Memphis0.1 clear of No. 56 Wake Forest - 02
02What's helping them?
- Solid Team Strength56.1
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- The case awaits its first evidence
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
Tulane is 0.2 Verdict points behind No. 54 Memphis — that's the gap to close.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So FarNo games playedThe record is blank until the first kickoffProjected Finish8-426% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins7.9Bowl Odds94%Playoff Odds16%90% Range5-7 to 10-2On paper favored in 9 of 12; with 3 games balanced on a knife edge the single likeliest finish is 8-4 (26%).
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
at DukeWeek 1 · Away · Verdict win probability 38%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board. Verdict has them at 38%, which makes a win the strongest evidence available this early.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Jack Tchienchou is back at S after 80 tackles (2 TFL, 1 sack). Jake Retzlaff (3,168 passing yards, 634 rushing yards), Shazz Preston (723 receiving yards) and Harvey Dyson III (7 sacks) are gone.
Tulane's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
The 2025 ledger reads 10-2, scoring 351 and allowing 294, a 4.8-point margin per game.2025
- 20 portal additions, the loudest a 0.87-rated RB out of Florida State.2026 transfer portal
- They did not stop there: a 0.86-rated RB from Oklahoma State and a 0.86-rated CB from Louisville.2026 transfer portal
- 27 out, 20 back in — turnover on that scale usually shows up somewhere.2026 transfer portal
- The most expensive loss is a 0.9-rated CB, now at Arkansas.2026 transfer portal
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for Tulane at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
The slate runs 12 games, none of them against the top 25. 6 of them are at home.
- Week 13 sends them to #32 USF.
- Week 3 is a trip to #36 Kansas State.
- Week 1 at #47 Duke is the road test.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #55?
Weigh the evidence and rule on Tulane's current case.
The arguments about Tulane
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against LSU
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 13 at USF
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 3 at Kansas State
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test Tulane's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 55. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.
