Tulsa
The record will tell the truth
No. 109 in team strength, No. 96 in projected wins. The schedule is not tilting this one either way.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Building a caseTulsa opens at No. 109, near the foot of the national field, and No. 9 in the American. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
0.2 behind No. 108 Eastern Michigan0.6 clear of No. 110 Rice - 02
02What's helping them?
- Developing Team Strength32.6
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- The case awaits its first evidence
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
Tulsa is 0.2 Verdict points behind No. 108 Eastern Michigan — that's the gap to close.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So FarNo games playedThe record is blank until the first kickoffProjected Finish6-625% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins5.7Bowl Odds56%Playoff Odds<1%90% Range3-9 to 8-4On paper favored in 4 of 12; with 5 games balanced on a knife edge the single likeliest finish is 6-6 (25%).
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
vs Oklahoma StateWeek 1 · Home · Verdict win probability 40%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board. Verdict has them at 40%, which makes a win the strongest evidence available this early.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Baylor Hayes is back at QB after 2,159 passing yards (12 TD, 6 INT). Dominic Richardson (1,065 rushing yards), Brody Foley (521 receiving yards), Ray Coney (128 tackles) and J'Dan Burnett (6.5 sacks) are gone.
Tulsa's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
2025 ended 4-8, scoring 278 and allowing 347 — outscored by 5.8 a game.2025
- They restocked — 21 in, headlined by a 0.88-rated EDGE out of Oklahoma State.2026 transfer portal
- They did not stop there: a 0.87-rated WR from Oregon State and a 0.86-rated RB from Old Dominion.2026 transfer portal
- The most expensive loss is a 0.92-rated TE, now at Louisville.2026 transfer portal
- 2025 ended 4-8, outscored by 5.8 a game — the hole starts there.2025
- 22 players left through the portal — 21 in, 22 out.2026 transfer portal
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for Tulsa at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
12 games — 6 at home, 6 on the road, and none of them against the top 25. 2 consecutive weeks away from home, starting in Week 6.
- They travel to #41 Arkansas in Week 4.
- Week 10 at #55 Tulane is the road test.
- #58 North Texas comes to them in Week 5.
- The season starts Week 1 at home against Oklahoma State.
- The finale is Week 13, on the road at UTSA.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #109?
Weigh the evidence and rule on Tulsa's current case.
The arguments about Tulsa
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against SMU
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 4 at Arkansas
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 10 at Tulane
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test Tulsa's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 109. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.
