UAB
The record will tell the truth
Strength and schedule agree here — No. 128 in team strength, No. 130 in projected wins. Expect the record to fit.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Building a caseUAB opens at No. 128, near the foot of the national field, and No. 13 in the American. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
0.3 behind No. 127 Ball State0.6 clear of No. 129 Air Force - 02
02What's helping them?
- Developing Team Strength24.2
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- No earned résumé yet
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
UAB is 0.3 Verdict points behind No. 127 Ball State — that's the gap to close.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So FarNo games playedThe record is blank until the first kickoffProjected Finish4-829% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins4.2Bowl Odds17%Playoff Odds<1%90% Range2-10 to 6-6Favored in 4 of 12
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
at IllinoisWeek 1 · Away · Verdict win probability 6%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board. Verdict has them at 6%, which makes a win the strongest evidence available this early.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Chris Burge is back at DE after 3.5 sacks. Jalen Kitna (2,462 passing yards), Jevon Jackson (900 rushing yards), Iverson Hooks (927 receiving yards) and Devin Hightower (81 tackles) are gone.
UAB's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
They went 4-8 in 2025 and lost the scoreboard by 11.8 a game, scoring 317 and allowing 459.2025
- UAB went shopping: 38 in, top of the class a 0.86-rated LB out of Colorado.2026 transfer portal
- A 0.86-rated RB from Georgia and a 0.86-rated S from SMU arrived alongside him.2026 transfer portal
- The door swung the wrong way: 33 out against 38 in.2026 transfer portal
- A 0.88-rated WR left to Oregon — the one they will miss first.2026 transfer portal
- They were outscored by 11.8 a game last season on the way to 4-8.2025
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for UAB at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
6 of the 12 are away from home, and none of them against the top 25.
- Week 1 sends them to #27 Illinois.
- Week 9 sends them to #32 USF.
- Week 6 is a trip to #54 Memphis.
- Week 13 ends it, on the road at North Texas.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #128?
Weigh the evidence and rule on UAB's current case.
The arguments about UAB
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against Southern Miss
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 1 at Illinois
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 9 at USF
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test UAB's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 128. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.
