South Florida
The record will look better than they are
They sit No. 32 in strength but No. 5 in projected wins — a 27-spot gap the slate is paying for, so 10-2 will read better than they play.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Fringe preseason caseUSF opens at No. 32, just outside the national Top 25 — the highest-ranked American team on the board. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
0.1 behind No. 31 Clemson0.1 clear of No. 33 Pittsburgh - 02
02What's helping them?
- Solid Team Strength63.9
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- Nothing on the ledger yet
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
South Florida is 0.1 Verdict points behind No. 31 Clemson — that's the gap to close.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So FarNo games playedThe record is blank until the first kickoffProjected Finish10-230% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins9.7Bowl Odds>99%Playoff Odds39%90% Range7-5 to 12-0Favored in 12 of 12, and even so 10-2 is the most likely finish at 30%: no team wins every game it is favoured in.
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
vs FIUWeek 1 · Home · Verdict win probability 86%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board. Verdict projects a comfortable win, so a loss here would be the first genuine damage to the case.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Byrum Brown (3,158 passing yards, 1,008 rushing yards), Keshaun Singleton (877 receiving yards), Jhalyn Shuler (105 tackles) and Mac Harris (6 sacks) are gone.
South Florida's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
None of last season's statistical leaders are on the current roster — this case is being made by new names.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
- Two things a case like this usually leans on — returning production and coaching continuity — are still unpublished for 2026, so they are left off the scales rather than guessed at.interpretation
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData.com
Statistical Record
No completed games for USF at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
5 of the 12 are away from home, and none of them against the top 25.
- #54 Memphis comes to them in Week 11.
- They host #55 Tulane in Week 13.
- They travel to #59 East Carolina in Week 10.
- It opens Week 1 at home against FIU.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #32?
Weigh the evidence and rule on South Florida's current case.
The arguments about South Florida
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against UCF
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 10 at East Carolina
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 11 vs Memphis
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test South Florida's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 32. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.