Washington
The record will tell the truth
No. 21 in team strength, No. 28 in projected wins — close enough that the record will describe the team honestly.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Solid preseason caseWashington opens on the Top 25 bubble at No. 21, and No. 7 in the Big Ten. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
Level with No. 20 Missouri0.9 clear of No. 22 Florida - 02
02What's helping them?
- Strong Team Strength70.3
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- Nothing on the ledger yet
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
Washington is dead level with No. 20 Missouri on Verdict Score — the next result breaks the tie.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So FarNo games playedThe record is blank until the first kickoffProjected Finish8-426% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins7.6Bowl Odds92%Playoff Odds7%90% Range5-7 to 10-2Favored in 9 of 12, yet 4 of the 12 could fall either way — which is why the likeliest finish is 8-4, at 26%.
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
vs Washington StateWeek 1 · Home · Verdict win probability 73%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Demond Williams Jr. is back at QB after 3,065 passing yards (25 TD, 8 INT). Alex McLaughlin (94 tackles) and Jacob Lane (4 sacks) return with him. Jonah Coleman (758 rushing yards) and Denzel Boston (881 receiving yards) are gone.
Washington's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
The 2025 ledger reads 8-4, scoring 405 and allowing 233, a 14.3-point margin per game.2025
- That 14.3-point margin was 15th-best in the country in 2025 — the one part of this case already earned.2025
- Washington went shopping: 14 in, top of the class a 0.92-rated OT out of Sam Houston.2026 transfer portal
- Also in the door: a 0.88-rated CB from Virginia and a 0.87-rated RB from Oregon.2026 transfer portal
- A 0.96-rated QB is gone.2026 transfer portal
- 7 players went to the NFL Draft, and that production has to come from somewhere.2026
- 23 out, 14 back in — turnover on that scale usually shows up somewhere.2026 transfer portal
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for Washington at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
12 on the schedule with 4 of them against top-25 teams — 7 home, 5 away. The road gets heavy in Week 7 — 2 straight away from home.
- Week 13 is a trip to #3 Oregon.
- Week 12 is #10 Indiana, at home.
- Week 10 brings #15 Penn State to town.
- Week 1 begins it, at home against Washington State.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Selected coverage from trusted sources. Opens at the original publisher.
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #21?
Weigh the evidence and rule on Washington's current case.
The arguments about Washington
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against Washington State
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 13 at Oregon
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 5 at USC
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test Washington's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 21. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.
