Explore · Settle the Argument

Settle the Argument.

You've already had it. Now go settle it.

Every card here starts with something fans actually say — then runs it against the same canonical Verdict projection that ranks the board. Matchup Central predicts the game. This settles the argument.

The argument everybody has

“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”

TRADE SCHEDULES

Swap two schedules, same venues, and run both seasons out. Who was carrying a schedule, and who was being carried by one.

Team
Trade with
ASU
Arizona State

Manageable schedule of their own · Arizona's is manageable

Was
7-4
On Arizona's schedule
6-5
-0.5 wins
Expected wins now
6.1
Was
6.6
Where it lands
6+66%
10+1%
ARIZ
Arizona

Manageable schedule of their own · Arizona State's is manageable

Was
6-5
On Arizona State's schedule
6-5
+0.5 wins
Expected wins now
6.3
Was
5.8
Where it lands
6+72%
10+1%
Who benefits
Arizona
+0.5 expected wins

Arizona picks up about half a win on Arizona State's slate.

Who gets hurt
Arizona State
−0.5 expected wins

Arizona State gives back about half a win on Arizona's slate.

Arizona State · toughest games they inherit
Vs
UTAH
Utah
38%
Vs
TCU
TCU
50%
At
WSU
Washington State
52%
6 games on Arizona's slate they would not have played.
Arizona · toughest games they inherit
At
TAMU
Texas A&M
24%
At
UCF
UCF
55%
Neutral
KU
Kansas
57%
5 games on Arizona State's slate they would not have played.
The record test
Arizona State: Better than the record will show · No. 34 strength / No. 50 projected wins
Arizona: Better than the record will show · No. 38 strength / No. 65 projected wins
The verdict
It's closer than the argument sounds.

Neither schedule is worth a full win to the other team — Arizona State -0.5, Arizona +0.5 — even where the likeliest record tips over.

Each team is run through the other's exact schedule, same venues. Head-to-head games between the two are set aside so both slates are the same size. 11 of 12 games modeled. Arizona State and Arizona play each other, so that game is set aside — neither team can inherit itself.

More arguments to settle

2026 Preseason Model · Partial roster evidence · data as of 2026-07-11. QB continuity and verified personnel changes are included. Returning-production and updated coaching data are still pending. Projections are model estimates for analysis, not guarantees.

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