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Settle the Argument.

You've already had it. Now go settle it.

Every card here starts with something fans actually say — then runs it against the same canonical Verdict projection that ranks the board. Matchup Central predicts the game. This settles the argument.

The argument everybody has

“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”

TRADE SCHEDULES

Swap two schedules, same venues, and run both seasons out. Who was carrying a schedule, and who was being carried by one.

Team
Trade with
BYU
BYU

Manageable schedule of their own · Utah State's is forgiving

Was
7-5
On Utah State's schedule
9-3
+1.4 wins
Expected wins now
8.6
Was
7.2
Where it lands
10+26%
11+7%
12-01%
USU
Utah State

Forgiving schedule of their own · BYU's is manageable

Was
5-7
On BYU's schedule
4-8
-1.5 wins
Expected wins now
3.9
Was
5.4
Where it lands
6+13%
Who benefits
BYU
+1.4 expected wins

BYU picks up a win and a half on Utah State's slate.

Who gets hurt
Utah State
−1.5 expected wins

Utah State gives back a win and a half on BYU's slate.

The game that changes everything

Vs Baylor

Week 11 · BYU's schedule
BYU
BYU
69%
to win · favored by 9
USU
Utah State
35%
to win · Baylor by 7
34-point probability gap

Same game. Same stadium. Verdict sees two very different problems.

BYU · toughest games they inherit
At
WASH
Washington
37%
At
SDSU
San Diego State
63%
At
BSU
Boise State
66%
5 games on Utah State's slate they would not have played.
Utah State · toughest games they inherit
Vs
ND
Notre Dame
11%
At
TCU
TCU
14%
At
KU
Kansas
24%
9 games on BYU's slate they would not have played.
The record test
BYU: Better than the record will show · No. 25 strength / No. 43 projected wins
Utah State: Better than the record will show · No. 82 strength / No. 100 projected wins
The verdict
Turns out the schedule mattered.

BYU picks up 1.4 wins on Utah State's schedule while Utah State gives back 1.5. That is the schedule talking, not the roster.

Each team is run through the other's exact schedule, same venues. Head-to-head games between the two are set aside so both slates are the same size. All 12 games modeled, non-FBS opponents included.

More arguments to settle

2026 Preseason Model · Partial roster evidence · data as of 2026-07-11. QB continuity and verified personnel changes are included. Returning-production and updated coaching data are still pending. Projections are model estimates for analysis, not guarantees.

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