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Settle the Argument.

You've already had it. Now go settle it.

Every card here starts with something fans actually say — then runs it against the same canonical Verdict projection that ranks the board. Matchup Central predicts the game. This settles the argument.

The argument everybody has

“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”

TRADE SCHEDULES

Swap two schedules, same venues, and run both seasons out. Who was carrying a schedule, and who was being carried by one.

Team
Trade with
CIN
Cincinnati

Tough schedule of their own · Miami (OH)'s is forgiving

Was
5-6
On Miami (OH)'s schedule
9-2
+3.4 wins
Expected wins now
8.8
Was
5.4
Where it lands
10+29%
11-06%
M-OH
Miami (OH)

Forgiving schedule of their own · Cincinnati's is tough

Was
7-4
On Cincinnati's schedule
3-8
-3.5 wins
Expected wins now
3.3
Was
6.8
Where it lands
6+5%
Who benefits
Cincinnati
+3.4 expected wins

Cincinnati picks up 3.4 wins on Miami (OH)'s slate.

Who gets hurt
Miami (OH)
−3.5 expected wins

Miami (OH) gives back 3.5 wins on Cincinnati's slate.

The game that changes everything

Vs Colorado

Week 12 · Cincinnati's schedule
CIN
Cincinnati
64%
to win · favored by 6
M-OH
Miami (OH)
38%
to win · Colorado by 5
26-point probability gap

Same game. Same stadium. Verdict sees two very different problems.

Cincinnati · toughest games they inherit
At
PITT
Pittsburgh
36%
At
WMU
Western Michigan
66%
2 games on Miami (OH)'s slate they would not have played.
Miami (OH) · toughest games they inherit
Vs
TTU
Texas Tech
9%
Vs
UTAH
Utah
13%
At
BYU
BYU
15%
10 games on Cincinnati's slate they would not have played.
The record test
Cincinnati: Better than the record will show · No. 48 strength / No. 73 projected wins
Miami (OH): The record will flatter them · No. 88 strength / No. 51 projected wins
The verdict
Turns out the schedule mattered.

Cincinnati picks up 3.4 wins on Miami (OH)'s schedule while Miami (OH) gives back 3.5. That is the schedule talking, not the roster.

Each team is run through the other's exact schedule, same venues. Head-to-head games between the two are set aside so both slates are the same size. 11 of 12 games modeled. Cincinnati and Miami (OH) play each other, so that game is set aside — neither team can inherit itself.

More arguments to settle

2026 Preseason Model · Partial roster evidence · data as of 2026-07-11. QB continuity and verified personnel changes are included. Returning-production and updated coaching data are still pending. Projections are model estimates for analysis, not guarantees.

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