Explore · Settle the Argument

Settle the Argument.

You've already had it. Now go settle it.

Every card here starts with something fans actually say — then runs it against the same canonical Verdict projection that ranks the board. Matchup Central predicts the game. This settles the argument.

The argument everybody has

“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”

TRADE SCHEDULES

Swap two schedules, same venues, and run both seasons out. Who was carrying a schedule, and who was being carried by one.

Team
Trade with
COL
Colorado

Manageable schedule of their own · Nebraska's is tough

Was
5-7
On Nebraska's schedule
5-7
no change
Expected wins now
5.2
Was
5.2
Where it lands
6+41%
NEB
Nebraska

Tough schedule of their own · Colorado's is manageable

Was
6-6
On Colorado's schedule
6-6
+0.1 wins
Expected wins now
6.3
Was
6.2
Where it lands
6+70%
10+2%
Who benefits

Nobody, meaningfully. Trade these two slates and neither projection moves enough to call it a difference.

The game that changes everything

At Northwestern

Week 3 · Colorado's schedule
NEB
Nebraska
54%
to win · favored by 2
COL
Colorado
42%
to win · Northwestern by 4
12-point probability gap

Same opponent, same venue — and 12 points of win probability between Nebraska and Colorado.

Colorado · toughest games they inherit
At
ORE
Oregon
9%
Vs
OSU
Ohio State
11%
Vs
IND
Indiana
25%
10 games on Nebraska's slate they would not have played.
Nebraska · toughest games they inherit
Vs
TTU
Texas Tech
25%
Vs
UTAH
Utah
34%
At
ASU
Arizona State
40%
11 games on Colorado's slate they would not have played.
The record test
Colorado: Better than the record will show · No. 65 strength / No. 106 projected wins
Nebraska: Better than the record will show · No. 42 strength / No. 72 projected wins
The verdict
Maybe it wasn't the schedule.

Swap them and almost nothing moves. Colorado and Nebraska are what they are.

Each team is run through the other's exact schedule, same venues. Head-to-head games between the two are set aside so both slates are the same size. All 12 games modeled, non-FBS opponents included.

More arguments to settle

2026 Preseason Model · Partial roster evidence · data as of 2026-07-11. QB continuity and verified personnel changes are included. Returning-production and updated coaching data are still pending. Projections are model estimates for analysis, not guarantees.

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