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Settle the Argument.

You've already had it. Now go settle it.

Every card here starts with something fans actually say — then runs it against the same canonical Verdict projection that ranks the board. Matchup Central predicts the game. This settles the argument.

The argument everybody has

“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”

TRADE SCHEDULES

Swap two schedules, same venues, and run both seasons out. Who was carrying a schedule, and who was being carried by one.

Team
Trade with
CSU
Colorado State

Forgiving schedule of their own · Colorado's is manageable

Was
5-7
On Colorado's schedule
3-9
-1.8 wins
Expected wins now
2.9
Was
4.7
Where it lands
6+3%
COL
Colorado

Manageable schedule of their own · Colorado State's is forgiving

Was
5-7
On Colorado State's schedule
8-4
+2.3 wins
Expected wins now
7.5
Was
5.2
Where it lands
6+90%
10+10%
11+2%
Who benefits
Colorado
+2.3 expected wins

Colorado picks up 2.3 wins on Colorado State's slate.

Who gets hurt
Colorado State
−1.8 expected wins

Colorado State gives back two wins on Colorado's slate.

The game that changes everything

At UTSA

Week 4 · Colorado State's schedule
COL
Colorado
62%
to win · favored by 5
CSU
Colorado State
35%
to win · UTSA by 7
27-point probability gap

Same game. Same stadium. Verdict sees two very different problems.

Colorado State · toughest games they inherit
Vs
TTU
Texas Tech
7%
Vs
UTAH
Utah
10%
At
ASU
Arizona State
12%
11 games on Colorado's slate they would not have played.
Colorado · toughest games they inherit
At
WSU
Washington State
37%
Vs
BYU
BYU
38%
At
TXST
Texas State
57%
8 games on Colorado State's slate they would not have played.
The record test
Colorado State: Better than the record will show · No. 101 strength / No. 118 projected wins
Colorado: Better than the record will show · No. 65 strength / No. 106 projected wins
The verdict
Turns out the schedule mattered.

Colorado picks up 2.3 wins on Colorado State's schedule while Colorado State gives back 1.8. That is the schedule talking, not the roster.

Each team is run through the other's exact schedule, same venues. Head-to-head games between the two are set aside so both slates are the same size. All 12 games modeled, non-FBS opponents included.

More arguments to settle

2026 Preseason Model · Partial roster evidence · data as of 2026-07-11. QB continuity and verified personnel changes are included. Returning-production and updated coaching data are still pending. Projections are model estimates for analysis, not guarantees.

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