Explore · Settle the Argument

Settle the Argument.

You've already had it. Now go settle it.

Every card here starts with something fans actually say — then runs it against the same canonical Verdict projection that ranks the board. Matchup Central predicts the game. This settles the argument.

The argument everybody has

“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”

TRADE SCHEDULES

Swap two schedules, same venues, and run both seasons out. Who was carrying a schedule, and who was being carried by one.

Team
Trade with
FAU
FAU

Forgiving schedule of their own · FIU's is forgiving

Was
5-6
On FIU's schedule
8-3
+2.1 wins
Expected wins now
7.4
Was
5.3
Where it lands
6+91%
10+5%
FIU
FIU

Forgiving schedule of their own · FAU's is forgiving

Was
7-4
On FAU's schedule
5-6
-2.1 wins
Expected wins now
5.2
Was
7.3
Where it lands
6+43%
Who benefits
FAU
+2.1 expected wins

FAU picks up two wins on FIU's slate.

Who gets hurt
FIU
−2.1 expected wins

FIU gives back two wins on FAU's slate.

FAU · toughest games they inherit
At
LIB
Liberty
49%
At
KENN
Kennesaw State
53%
Vs
BUF
Buffalo
63%
5 games on FIU's slate they would not have played.
FIU · toughest games they inherit
At
FLA
Florida
10%
At
UNT
North Texas
21%
At
ECU
East Carolina
21%
9 games on FAU's slate they would not have played.
The record test
FAU: Record and reality line up · No. 93 strength / No. 88 projected wins
FIU: The record will flatter them · No. 94 strength / No. 25 projected wins
The verdict
Turns out the schedule mattered.

FAU picks up 2.1 wins on FIU's schedule while FIU gives back 2.1. That is the schedule talking, not the roster.

Each team is run through the other's exact schedule, same venues. Head-to-head games between the two are set aside so both slates are the same size. 11 of 12 games modeled. FAU and FIU play each other, so that game is set aside — neither team can inherit itself.

More arguments to settle

2026 Preseason Model · Partial roster evidence · data as of 2026-07-11. QB continuity and verified personnel changes are included. Returning-production and updated coaching data are still pending. Projections are model estimates for analysis, not guarantees.

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