Explore · Settle the Argument

Settle the Argument.

You've already had it. Now go settle it.

Every card here starts with something fans actually say — then runs it against the same canonical Verdict projection that ranks the board. Matchup Central predicts the game. This settles the argument.

The argument everybody has

“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”

TRADE SCHEDULES

Swap two schedules, same venues, and run both seasons out. Who was carrying a schedule, and who was being carried by one.

Team
Trade with
MIA
Miami

Forgiving schedule of their own · Notre Dame's is forgiving

Was
10-1
On Notre Dame's schedule
10-1
+0.2 wins
Expected wins now
9.8
Was
9.6
Where it lands
10+66%
11-027%
ND
Notre Dame

Forgiving schedule of their own · Miami's is forgiving

Was
10-1
On Miami's schedule
10-1
-0.2 wins
Expected wins now
9.3
Was
9.5
Where it lands
10+48%
11-016%
Who benefits

Nobody, meaningfully. Trade these two slates and neither projection moves enough to call it a difference.

The game that changes everything

At Clemson

Week 5 · Miami's schedule
MIA
Miami
74%
to win · favored by 12
ND
Notre Dame
69%
to win · favored by 9
5-point probability gap

Miami is 5 points likelier to win that game than Notre Dame. Small on paper. It shows up in the record.

Miami · toughest games they inherit
At
BYU
BYU
72%
1 game on Notre Dame's slate they would not have played.
Notre Dame · toughest games they inherit
At
CLEM
Clemson
69%
1 game on Miami's slate they would not have played.
The record test
Miami: Record and reality line up · No. 4 strength / No. 2 projected wins
Notre Dame: Record and reality line up · No. 7 strength / No. 3 projected wins
The verdict
Maybe it wasn't the schedule.

Swap them and almost nothing moves. Miami and Notre Dame are what they are.

Each team is run through the other's exact schedule, same venues. Head-to-head games between the two are set aside so both slates are the same size. 11 of 12 games modeled. Miami and Notre Dame play each other, so that game is set aside — neither team can inherit itself.

More arguments to settle

2026 Preseason Model · Partial roster evidence · data as of 2026-07-11. QB continuity and verified personnel changes are included. Returning-production and updated coaching data are still pending. Projections are model estimates for analysis, not guarantees.

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