Explore · Settle the Argument

Settle the Argument.

You've already had it. Now go settle it.

Every card here starts with something fans actually say — then runs it against the same canonical Verdict projection that ranks the board. Matchup Central predicts the game. This settles the argument.

The argument everybody has

“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”

TRADE SCHEDULES

Swap two schedules, same venues, and run both seasons out. Who was carrying a schedule, and who was being carried by one.

Team
Trade with
NEV
Nevada

Forgiving schedule of their own · Sacramento State's is forgiving

Was
6-6
On Sacramento State's schedule
6-6
+0.2 wins
Expected wins now
6.0
Was
5.8
Where it lands
6+62%
10+1%
SAC
Sacramento State

Forgiving schedule of their own · Nevada's is forgiving

Was
6-6
On Nevada's schedule
6-6
-0.2 wins
Expected wins now
6.1
Was
6.3
Where it lands
6+64%
10+2%
Who benefits

Nobody, meaningfully. Trade these two slates and neither projection moves enough to call it a difference.

Nevada · toughest games they inherit
At
FRES
Fresno State
26%
Vs
TOL
Toledo
27%
At
CMU
Central Michigan
38%
8 games on Sacramento State's slate they would not have played.
Sacramento State · toughest games they inherit
At
UCLA
UCLA
20%
At
UNLV
UNLV
28%
At
UTEP
UTEP
51%
9 games on Nevada's slate they would not have played.
The record test
Nevada: The record will flatter them · No. 115 strength / No. 93 projected wins
Sacramento State: The record will flatter them · No. 111 strength / No. 70 projected wins
The verdict
Maybe it wasn't the schedule.

Swap them and almost nothing moves. Nevada and Sacramento State are what they are.

Each team is run through the other's exact schedule, same venues. Head-to-head games between the two are set aside so both slates are the same size. All 12 games modeled, non-FBS opponents included.

More arguments to settle

2026 Preseason Model · Partial roster evidence · data as of 2026-07-11. QB continuity and verified personnel changes are included. Returning-production and updated coaching data are still pending. Projections are model estimates for analysis, not guarantees.

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