Settle the Argument.
You've already had it. Now go settle it.
Every card here starts with something fans actually say — then runs it against the same canonical Verdict projection that ranks the board. Matchup Central predicts the game. This settles the argument.
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
TRADE SCHEDULES
Swap two schedules, same venues, and run both seasons out. Who was carrying a schedule, and who was being carried by one.
Forgiving schedule of their own · New Mexico's is forgiving
Forgiving schedule of their own · New Mexico State's is forgiving
New Mexico picks up about half a win on New Mexico State's slate.
New Mexico State gives back about half a win on New Mexico's slate.
At Middle Tennessee
Week 13 · New Mexico State's scheduleSame game. Same stadium. Verdict sees two very different problems.
Neither schedule is worth a full win to the other team — New Mexico State -0.5, New Mexico +0.5 — even where the likeliest record tips over.
Each team is run through the other's exact schedule, same venues. Head-to-head games between the two are set aside so both slates are the same size. 11 of 12 games modeled. New Mexico State and New Mexico play each other, so that game is set aside — neither team can inherit itself.
2026 Preseason Model · Partial roster evidence · data as of 2026-07-11. QB continuity and verified personnel changes are included. Returning-production and updated coaching data are still pending. Projections are model estimates for analysis, not guarantees.
