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Settle the Argument.

You've already had it. Now go settle it.

Every card here starts with something fans actually say — then runs it against the same canonical Verdict projection that ranks the board. Matchup Central predicts the game. This settles the argument.

The argument everybody has

“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”

TRADE SCHEDULES

Swap two schedules, same venues, and run both seasons out. Who was carrying a schedule, and who was being carried by one.

Team
Trade with
UNT
North Texas

Forgiving schedule of their own · SMU's is forgiving

Was
9-3
On SMU's schedule
7-5
-1.8 wins
Expected wins now
6.7
Was
8.5
Where it lands
6+79%
10+3%
SMU
SMU

Forgiving schedule of their own · North Texas's is forgiving

Was
8-4
On North Texas's schedule
9-3
+1.6 wins
Expected wins now
9.2
Was
7.6
Where it lands
10+42%
11+15%
12-02%
Who benefits
SMU
+1.6 expected wins

SMU picks up a win and a half on North Texas's slate.

Who gets hurt
North Texas
−1.8 expected wins

North Texas gives back two wins on SMU's slate.

The game that changes everything

Vs Virginia

Week 7 · SMU's schedule
SMU
SMU
59%
to win · favored by 4
UNT
North Texas
49%
to win · a coin flip on the number
10-point probability gap

SMU is 10 points likelier to win that game than North Texas. Small on paper. It shows up in the record.

North Texas · toughest games they inherit
At
ND
Notre Dame
13%
At
FSU
Florida State
27%
At
LOU
Louisville
31%
10 games on SMU's slate they would not have played.
SMU · toughest games they inherit
At
IND
Indiana
23%
At
TULN
Tulane
51%
At
TXST
Texas State
68%
4 games on North Texas's slate they would not have played.
The record test
North Texas: The record will flatter them · No. 58 strength / No. 14 projected wins
SMU: Record and reality line up · No. 40 strength / No. 30 projected wins
The verdict
Turns out the schedule mattered.

SMU picks up 1.6 wins on North Texas's schedule while North Texas gives back 1.8. That is the schedule talking, not the roster.

Each team is run through the other's exact schedule, same venues. Head-to-head games between the two are set aside so both slates are the same size. All 12 games modeled, non-FBS opponents included.

More arguments to settle

2026 Preseason Model · Partial roster evidence · data as of 2026-07-11. QB continuity and verified personnel changes are included. Returning-production and updated coaching data are still pending. Projections are model estimates for analysis, not guarantees.

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