Explore · Settle the Argument

Settle the Argument.

You've already had it. Now go settle it.

Every card here starts with something fans actually say — then runs it against the same canonical Verdict projection that ranks the board. Matchup Central predicts the game. This settles the argument.

The argument everybody has

“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”

TRADE SCHEDULES

Swap two schedules, same venues, and run both seasons out. Who was carrying a schedule, and who was being carried by one.

Team
Trade with
OHIO
Ohio

Forgiving schedule of their own · Miami (OH)'s is forgiving

Was
7-4
On Miami (OH)'s schedule
7-4
-0.4 wins
Expected wins now
6.6
Was
7.0
Where it lands
6+78%
10+1%
M-OH
Miami (OH)

Forgiving schedule of their own · Ohio's is forgiving

Was
7-4
On Ohio's schedule
7-4
+0.4 wins
Expected wins now
6.9
Was
6.5
Where it lands
6+83%
10+3%
Who benefits
Miami (OH)
+0.4 expected wins

Miami (OH) picks up about half a win on Ohio's slate.

Who gets hurt
Ohio
−0.4 expected wins

Ohio gives back about half a win on Miami (OH)'s slate.

Ohio · toughest games they inherit
At
PITT
Pittsburgh
17%
At
CIN
Cincinnati
22%
At
WMU
Western Michigan
42%
6 games on Miami (OH)'s slate they would not have played.
Miami (OH) · toughest games they inherit
At
NEB
Nebraska
19%
Vs
TOL
Toledo
40%
At
SAC
Sacramento State
56%
5 games on Ohio's slate they would not have played.
The record test
Ohio: The record will flatter them · No. 85 strength / No. 33 projected wins
Miami (OH): The record will flatter them · No. 88 strength / No. 51 projected wins
The verdict
Maybe it wasn't the schedule.

Swap them and almost nothing moves. Ohio and Miami (OH) are what they are.

Each team is run through the other's exact schedule, same venues. Head-to-head games between the two are set aside so both slates are the same size. 11 of 12 games modeled. Ohio and Miami (OH) play each other, so that game is set aside — neither team can inherit itself.

More arguments to settle

2026 Preseason Model · Partial roster evidence · data as of 2026-07-11. QB continuity and verified personnel changes are included. Returning-production and updated coaching data are still pending. Projections are model estimates for analysis, not guarantees.

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