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Settle the Argument.

You've already had it. Now go settle it.

Every card here starts with something fans actually say — then runs it against the same canonical Verdict projection that ranks the board. Matchup Central predicts the game. This settles the argument.

The argument everybody has

“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”

TRADE SCHEDULES

Swap two schedules, same venues, and run both seasons out. Who was carrying a schedule, and who was being carried by one.

Team
Trade with
MISS
Ole Miss

Tough schedule of their own · Memphis's is forgiving

Was
8-4
On Memphis's schedule
11-1
+2.8 wins
Expected wins now
10.4
Was
7.6
Where it lands
10+81%
11+51%
12-016%
MEM
Memphis

Forgiving schedule of their own · Ole Miss's is tough

Was
9-3
On Ole Miss's schedule
5-7
-3.6 wins
Expected wins now
4.9
Was
8.5
Where it lands
6+33%
Who benefits
Ole Miss
+2.8 expected wins

Ole Miss picks up 2.8 wins on Memphis's slate.

Who gets hurt
Memphis
−3.6 expected wins

Memphis gives back 3.6 wins on Ole Miss's slate.

The game that changes everything

Neutral Louisville

Week 1 · Ole Miss's schedule
MISS
Ole Miss
68%
to win · favored by 8
MEM
Memphis
39%
to win · Louisville by 5
29-point probability gap

Same game. Same stadium. Verdict sees two very different problems.

Ole Miss · toughest games they inherit
At
USF
USF
61%
At
TULN
Tulane
71%
2 games on Memphis's slate they would not have played.
Memphis · toughest games they inherit
Vs
UGA
Georgia
15%
At
TEX
Texas
15%
At
OU
Oklahoma
21%
10 games on Ole Miss's slate they would not have played.
The record test
Ole Miss: Record and reality line up · No. 12 strength / No. 26 projected wins
Memphis: The record will flatter them · No. 54 strength / No. 13 projected wins
The verdict
Turns out the schedule mattered.

Ole Miss picks up 2.8 wins on Memphis's schedule while Memphis gives back 3.6. That is the schedule talking, not the roster.

Each team is run through the other's exact schedule, same venues. Head-to-head games between the two are set aside so both slates are the same size. All 12 games modeled, non-FBS opponents included.

More arguments to settle

2026 Preseason Model · Partial roster evidence · data as of 2026-07-11. QB continuity and verified personnel changes are included. Returning-production and updated coaching data are still pending. Projections are model estimates for analysis, not guarantees.

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