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Settle the Argument.

You've already had it. Now go settle it.

Every card here starts with something fans actually say — then runs it against the same canonical Verdict projection that ranks the board. Matchup Central predicts the game. This settles the argument.

“They're not going 10-2.”

RUN THEIR SEASON

Pick a team

San Jose State

13 games modeled · Forgiving schedule

Projected finish

6-7

Floor

3-10

Ceiling

9-4

Chances of finishing

6+64%

10+2%

Hardest game on the schedule

USC

USC by 31.

Toughest stretch · Weeks 1-3

USC

Eastern Michigan

39%

Fresno State

37%

Through it clean 1%

The schedule gets ugly fast.

6-7 is the projection, and it runs through Weeks 1-3 — 1% to get out of that stretch clean.

The record test

San Jose State: The record will flatter them · No. 117 strength / No. 80 projected wins

Every game on the schedule is weighed by its own win probability, and every possible combination of results is counted exactly. All 13 games modeled, non-FBS opponents included.

More arguments to settle

2026 Preseason Model · Partial roster evidence · data as of 2026-07-11. QB continuity and verified personnel changes are included. Returning-production and updated coaching data are still pending. Projections are model estimates for analysis, not guarantees.

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