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Settle the Argument.

You've already had it. Now go settle it.

Every card here starts with something fans actually say — then runs it against the same canonical Verdict projection that ranks the board. Matchup Central predicts the game. This settles the argument.

The argument everybody has

“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”

TRADE SCHEDULES

Swap two schedules, same venues, and run both seasons out. Who was carrying a schedule, and who was being carried by one.

Team
Trade with
TEX
Texas

Tough schedule of their own · Texas Tech's is forgiving

Was
8-4
On Texas Tech's schedule
10-2
+2.1 wins
Expected wins now
10.0
Was
7.9
Where it lands
10+68%
11+38%
12-011%
TTU
Texas Tech

Forgiving schedule of their own · Texas's is tough

Was
11-1
On Texas's schedule
9-3
-1.9 wins
Expected wins now
8.5
Was
10.4
Where it lands
10+25%
11+8%
12-01%
Who benefits
Texas
+2.1 expected wins

Texas picks up two wins on Texas Tech's slate.

Who gets hurt
Texas Tech
−1.9 expected wins

Texas Tech gives back two wins on Texas's slate.

The game that changes everything

At Texas A&M

Week 13 · Texas's schedule
TTU
Texas Tech
55%
to win · favored by 2
TEX
Texas
48%
to win · a coin flip on the number
7-point probability gap

Texas Tech is 7 points likelier to win that game than Texas. Small on paper. It shows up in the record.

Texas · toughest games they inherit
Vs
TCU
TCU
73%
At
CIN
Cincinnati
73%
2 games on Texas Tech's slate they would not have played.
Texas Tech · toughest games they inherit
Vs
OSU
Ohio State
43%
At
TAMU
Texas A&M
55%
At
TENN
Tennessee
57%
7 games on Texas's slate they would not have played.
The record test
Texas: Record and reality line up · No. 8 strength / No. 17 projected wins
Texas Tech: Record and reality line up · No. 6 strength / No. 1 projected wins
The verdict
Turns out the schedule mattered.

Texas picks up 2.1 wins on Texas Tech's schedule while Texas Tech gives back 1.9. That is the schedule talking, not the roster.

Each team is run through the other's exact schedule, same venues. Head-to-head games between the two are set aside so both slates are the same size. All 12 games modeled, non-FBS opponents included.

More arguments to settle

2026 Preseason Model · Partial roster evidence · data as of 2026-07-11. QB continuity and verified personnel changes are included. Returning-production and updated coaching data are still pending. Projections are model estimates for analysis, not guarantees.

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