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Settle the Argument.

You've already had it. Now go settle it.

Every card here starts with something fans actually say — then runs it against the same canonical Verdict projection that ranks the board. Matchup Central predicts the game. This settles the argument.

The argument everybody has

“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”

TRADE SCHEDULES

Swap two schedules, same venues, and run both seasons out. Who was carrying a schedule, and who was being carried by one.

Team
Trade with
TULN
Tulane

Forgiving schedule of their own · LSU's is tough

Was
8-4
On LSU's schedule
5-7
-3.1 wins
Expected wins now
4.8
Was
7.9
Where it lands
6+31%
LSU
LSU

Tough schedule of their own · Tulane's is forgiving

Was
7-5
On Tulane's schedule
10-2
+2.6 wins
Expected wins now
9.9
Was
7.3
Where it lands
10+64%
11+32%
12-08%
Who benefits
LSU
+2.6 expected wins

LSU picks up 2.6 wins on Tulane's slate.

Who gets hurt
Tulane
−3.1 expected wins

Tulane gives back 3.1 wins on LSU's slate.

The game that changes everything

At Duke

Week 1 · Tulane's schedule
LSU
LSU
64%
to win · favored by 6
TULN
Tulane
38%
to win · Duke by 5
26-point probability gap

Same game. Same stadium. Verdict sees two very different problems.

Tulane · toughest games they inherit
Vs
ALA
Alabama
18%
At
MISS
Ole Miss
19%
At
TENN
Tennessee
19%
10 games on LSU's slate they would not have played.
LSU · toughest games they inherit
At
USF
USF
58%
At
KSU
Kansas State
58%
At
DUKE
Duke
64%
3 games on Tulane's slate they would not have played.
The record test
Tulane: The record will flatter them · No. 55 strength / No. 18 projected wins
LSU: Better than the record will show · No. 16 strength / No. 37 projected wins
The verdict
Turns out the schedule mattered.

LSU picks up 2.6 wins on Tulane's schedule while Tulane gives back 3.1. That is the schedule talking, not the roster.

Each team is run through the other's exact schedule, same venues. Head-to-head games between the two are set aside so both slates are the same size. All 12 games modeled, non-FBS opponents included.

More arguments to settle

2026 Preseason Model · Partial roster evidence · data as of 2026-07-11. QB continuity and verified personnel changes are included. Returning-production and updated coaching data are still pending. Projections are model estimates for analysis, not guarantees.

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