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Settle the Argument.

You've already had it. Now go settle it.

Every card here starts with something fans actually say — then runs it against the same canonical Verdict projection that ranks the board. Matchup Central predicts the game. This settles the argument.

The argument everybody has

“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”

TRADE SCHEDULES

Swap two schedules, same venues, and run both seasons out. Who was carrying a schedule, and who was being carried by one.

Team
Trade with
TLSA
Tulsa

Forgiving schedule of their own · SMU's is forgiving

Was
6-6
On SMU's schedule
4-8
-2 wins
Expected wins now
3.7
Was
5.7
Where it lands
6+11%
SMU
SMU

Forgiving schedule of their own · Tulsa's is forgiving

Was
8-4
On Tulsa's schedule
10-2
+1.8 wins
Expected wins now
9.4
Was
7.6
Where it lands
10+48%
11+20%
12-04%
Who benefits
SMU
+1.8 expected wins

SMU picks up two wins on Tulsa's slate.

Who gets hurt
Tulsa
−2 expected wins

Tulsa gives back two wins on SMU's slate.

The game that changes everything

Vs North Texas

Week 5 · Tulsa's schedule
SMU
SMU
66%
to win · favored by 7
TLSA
Tulsa
26%
to win · North Texas by 12
40-point probability gap

Same game. Same stadium. Verdict sees two very different problems.

Tulsa · toughest games they inherit
At
ND
Notre Dame
4%
At
FSU
Florida State
9%
At
LOU
Louisville
11%
11 games on SMU's slate they would not have played.
SMU · toughest games they inherit
At
ARK
Arkansas
43%
At
TULN
Tulane
51%
Vs
UNT
North Texas
66%
4 games on Tulsa's slate they would not have played.
The record test
Tulsa: Record and reality line up · No. 109 strength / No. 96 projected wins
SMU: Record and reality line up · No. 40 strength / No. 30 projected wins
The verdict
Turns out the schedule mattered.

SMU picks up 1.8 wins on Tulsa's schedule while Tulsa gives back 2.0. That is the schedule talking, not the roster.

Each team is run through the other's exact schedule, same venues. Head-to-head games between the two are set aside so both slates are the same size. All 12 games modeled, non-FBS opponents included.

More arguments to settle

2026 Preseason Model · Partial roster evidence · data as of 2026-07-11. QB continuity and verified personnel changes are included. Returning-production and updated coaching data are still pending. Projections are model estimates for analysis, not guarantees.

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