Explore · Settle the Argument

Settle the Argument.

You've already had it. Now go settle it.

Every card here starts with something fans actually say — then runs it against the same canonical Verdict projection that ranks the board. Matchup Central predicts the game. This settles the argument.

The argument everybody has

“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”

TRADE SCHEDULES

Swap two schedules, same venues, and run both seasons out. Who was carrying a schedule, and who was being carried by one.

Team
Trade with
UAB
UAB

Forgiving schedule of their own · Southern Miss's is forgiving

Was
4-8
On Southern Miss's schedule
4-8
no change
Expected wins now
4.2
Was
4.2
Where it lands
6+19%
USM
Southern Miss

Forgiving schedule of their own · UAB's is forgiving

Was
6-6
On UAB's schedule
6-6
-0.3 wins
Expected wins now
6.1
Was
6.4
Where it lands
6+66%
10+1%
Who benefits

Nobody, meaningfully. Trade these two slates and neither projection moves enough to call it a difference.

The game that changes everything

Vs UTSA

Week 12 · UAB's schedule
USM
Southern Miss
56%
to win · favored by 2
UAB
UAB
33%
to win · UTSA by 8
23-point probability gap

Same game. Same stadium. Verdict sees two very different problems.

UAB · toughest games they inherit
At
AUB
Auburn
4%
At
TULN
Tulane
10%
At
ODU
Old Dominion
18%
9 games on Southern Miss's slate they would not have played.
Southern Miss · toughest games they inherit
At
ILL
Illinois
14%
At
USF
USF
16%
At
MEM
Memphis
23%
8 games on UAB's slate they would not have played.
The record test
UAB: Record and reality line up · No. 128 strength / No. 130 projected wins
Southern Miss: The record will flatter them · No. 89 strength / No. 66 projected wins
The verdict
Maybe it wasn't the schedule.

Swap them and almost nothing moves. UAB and Southern Miss are what they are.

Each team is run through the other's exact schedule, same venues. Head-to-head games between the two are set aside so both slates are the same size. All 12 games modeled, non-FBS opponents included.

More arguments to settle

2026 Preseason Model · Partial roster evidence · data as of 2026-07-11. QB continuity and verified personnel changes are included. Returning-production and updated coaching data are still pending. Projections are model estimates for analysis, not guarantees.

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