Explore · Settle the Argument

Settle the Argument.

You've already had it. Now go settle it.

Every card here starts with something fans actually say — then runs it against the same canonical Verdict projection that ranks the board. Matchup Central predicts the game. This settles the argument.

The argument everybody has

“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”

TRADE SCHEDULES

Swap two schedules, same venues, and run both seasons out. Who was carrying a schedule, and who was being carried by one.

Team
Trade with
CONN
UConn

Forgiving schedule of their own · Temple's is forgiving

Was
6-5
On Temple's schedule
5-6
-0.5 wins
Expected wins now
5.3
Was
5.8
Where it lands
6+45%
TEM
Temple

Forgiving schedule of their own · UConn's is forgiving

Was
5-6
On UConn's schedule
5-6
+0.5 wins
Expected wins now
5.5
Was
5.0
Where it lands
6+49%
Who benefits
Temple
+0.5 expected wins

Temple picks up about half a win on UConn's slate.

Who gets hurt
UConn
−0.5 expected wins

UConn gives back about half a win on Temple's slate.

The game that changes everything

At Southern Miss

Week 3 · UConn's schedule
CONN
UConn
41%
to win · Southern Miss by 4
TEM
Temple
37%
to win · Southern Miss by 6
4-point probability gap

UConn is 4 points likelier to win that game than Temple. Small on paper. It shows up in the record.

UConn · toughest games they inherit
Vs
PSU
Penn State
13%
At
USF
USF
14%
At
MEM
Memphis
21%
9 games on Temple's slate they would not have played.
Temple · toughest games they inherit
Vs
MD
Maryland
30%
Vs
JMU
James Madison
36%
At
M-OH
Miami (OH)
36%
9 games on UConn's slate they would not have played.
The record test
UConn: The record will flatter them · No. 92 strength / No. 69 projected wins
Temple: Record and reality line up · No. 99 strength / No. 97 projected wins
The verdict
It's closer than the argument sounds.

Neither schedule is worth a full win to the other team — UConn -0.5, Temple +0.5 — even where the likeliest record tips over.

Each team is run through the other's exact schedule, same venues. Head-to-head games between the two are set aside so both slates are the same size. 11 of 12 games modeled. UConn and Temple play each other, so that game is set aside — neither team can inherit itself.

More arguments to settle

2026 Preseason Model · Partial roster evidence · data as of 2026-07-11. QB continuity and verified personnel changes are included. Returning-production and updated coaching data are still pending. Projections are model estimates for analysis, not guarantees.

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