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Settle the Argument.

You've already had it. Now go settle it.

Every card here starts with something fans actually say — then runs it against the same canonical Verdict projection that ranks the board. Matchup Central predicts the game. This settles the argument.

The argument everybody has

“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”

TRADE SCHEDULES

Swap two schedules, same venues, and run both seasons out. Who was carrying a schedule, and who was being carried by one.

Team
Trade with
UTEP
UTEP

Forgiving schedule of their own · UTSA's is forgiving

Was
5-7
On UTSA's schedule
4-8
-1.1 wins
Expected wins now
4.0
Was
5.1
Where it lands
6+16%
UTSA
UTSA

Forgiving schedule of their own · UTEP's is forgiving

Was
6-6
On UTEP's schedule
7-5
+1 wins
Expected wins now
7.0
Was
6.0
Where it lands
6+85%
10+4%
Who benefits
UTSA
+1 expected wins

UTSA picks up about a win on UTEP's slate.

Who gets hurt
UTEP
−1.1 expected wins

UTEP gives back about a win on UTSA's slate.

The game that changes everything

Vs Hawaii

Week 10 · UTEP's schedule
UTSA
UTSA
57%
to win · favored by 3
UTEP
UTEP
36%
to win · Hawaii by 6
21-point probability gap

Same game. Same stadium. Verdict sees two very different problems.

UTEP · toughest games they inherit
At
TEX
Texas
3%
At
TULN
Tulane
12%
Vs
USF
USF
13%
11 games on UTSA's slate they would not have played.
UTSA · toughest games they inherit
At
MICH
Michigan
9%
At
OU
Oklahoma
10%
Vs
HAW
Hawaii
57%
11 games on UTEP's slate they would not have played.
The record test
UTEP: Record and reality line up · No. 123 strength / No. 111 projected wins
UTSA: Record and reality line up · No. 87 strength / No. 83 projected wins
The verdict
Turns out the schedule mattered.

UTSA picks up 1.0 win on UTEP's schedule while UTEP gives back 1.1. That is the schedule talking, not the roster.

Each team is run through the other's exact schedule, same venues. Head-to-head games between the two are set aside so both slates are the same size. All 12 games modeled, non-FBS opponents included.

More arguments to settle

2026 Preseason Model · Partial roster evidence · data as of 2026-07-11. QB continuity and verified personnel changes are included. Returning-production and updated coaching data are still pending. Projections are model estimates for analysis, not guarantees.

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