Settle the Argument.
You've already had it. Now go settle it.
Every card here starts with something fans actually say — then runs it against the same canonical Verdict projection that ranks the board. Matchup Central predicts the game. This settles the argument.
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
TRADE SCHEDULES
Swap two schedules, same venues, and run both seasons out. Who was carrying a schedule, and who was being carried by one.
Forgiving schedule of their own · Texas State's is forgiving
Forgiving schedule of their own · UTSA's is forgiving
Texas State picks up about a win on UTSA's slate.
UTSA gives back about a win on Texas State's slate.
Vs Utah State
Week 8 · Texas State's scheduleTexas State is 5 points likelier to win that game than UTSA. Small on paper. It shows up in the record.
Texas State picks up 0.8 wins on UTSA's schedule while UTSA gives back 0.8. That is the schedule talking, not the roster.
Each team is run through the other's exact schedule, same venues. Head-to-head games between the two are set aside so both slates are the same size. 11 of 12 games modeled. UTSA and Texas State play each other, so that game is set aside — neither team can inherit itself.
2026 Preseason Model · Partial roster evidence · data as of 2026-07-11. QB continuity and verified personnel changes are included. Returning-production and updated coaching data are still pending. Projections are model estimates for analysis, not guarantees.