Arkansas State
The record will look better than they are
They sit No. 90 in strength but No. 56 in projected wins — a 34-spot gap the slate is paying for, so 7-5 will read better than they play.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Building a caseArkansas State opens at No. 90, in the bottom half of the field, and No. 4 in the Sun Belt. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
0.1 behind No. 89 Southern Miss1.7 clear of No. 91 Oregon State - 02
02What's helping them?
- Developing Team Strength39.9
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- Nothing on the ledger yet
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
Arkansas State is 0.1 Verdict points behind No. 89 Southern Miss — that's the gap to close.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So FarNo games playedThe record is blank until the first kickoffProjected Finish7-525% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins6.8Bowl Odds81%Playoff Odds<1%90% Range4-8 to 9-3Favored in 8 of 12 — but 5 of those 12 games are close enough to go either way, so weighing every outcome the likeliest finish is 7-5 (25%).
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
at MemphisWeek 1 · Away · Verdict win probability 23%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board. Verdict has them at 23%, which makes a win the strongest evidence available this early.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Devin Spencer is back at RB after 559 rushing yards (3 TD). Jaylen Raynor (3,364 passing yards), Corey Rucker (1,029 receiving yards), Aaron Alexander (92 tackles) and Demarcus Hendricks (8.5 sacks) are gone.
Arkansas State's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
The 2025 season finished 6-6, scoring 293 and allowing 328 — 2.9 a game in the red.2025
- 24 new names in, and the best of them is a 0.86-rated IOL out of Florida State.2026 transfer portal
- A 0.86-rated LB from NC State and a 0.86-rated QB from Texas arrived alongside him.2026 transfer portal
- 37 left and only 24 arrived — 13 fewer bodies than they started with.2026 transfer portal
- The 2025 team lost the scoreboard by 2.9 a night. Nothing since has changed that on the field.2025
- A 0.86-rated TE left to Iowa State — the one they will miss first.2026 transfer portal
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for Arkansas State at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
12 on the schedule with one of them against a top-25 team — 6 home, 6 away. The road gets heavy in Week 11 — 2 straight away from home.
- Week 3 sends them to #23 TCU.
- They travel to #54 Memphis in Week 1.
- Week 7 sends them to #89 Southern Miss.
- It closes Week 13 at home against Troy.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #90?
Weigh the evidence and rule on Arkansas State's current case.
The arguments about Arkansas State
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against Louisiana
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 3 at TCU
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 1 at Memphis
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test Arkansas State's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 90. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.