Troy
The record will look better than they are
A 23-spot gap the other way — No. 100 in team strength, No. 77 in projected wins. The wins count, the opposition is the caveat, so 6-6 will read better than they play.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Building a caseTroy opens at No. 100, in the bottom half of the field, and No. 9 in the Sun Belt. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
0.1 behind No. 99 Temple0.5 clear of No. 101 Colorado State - 02
02What's helping them?
- Developing Team Strength35.4
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- Nothing on the ledger yet
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
Troy is 0.1 Verdict points behind No. 99 Temple — that's the gap to close.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So FarNo games playedThe record is blank until the first kickoffProjected Finish6-625% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins6.2Bowl Odds67%Playoff Odds<1%90% Range4-8 to 9-3Favored in 7 of 12 — with 6 of the 12 near coin-flips, the likeliest finish comes out 6-6 at 25%.
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
vs Sam HoustonWeek 1 · Home · Verdict win probability 83%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board. Verdict projects a comfortable win, so a loss here would be the first genuine damage to the case.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Tucker Kilcrease is back at QB after 1,537 passing yards (9 TD, 6 INT). Donnie Smith (11 sacks) returns with him. Tae Meadows (695 rushing yards), Rara Thomas (629 receiving yards) and Jordan Stringer (123 tackles) are gone.
Troy's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
8-4 in 2025, and they won the scoreboard by 2.6 a night — scoring 316 and allowing 285.2025
- Best thing they did all offseason: a 0.85-rated LB in from Boston College, part of a 14-man haul.2026 transfer portal
- A 0.85-rated CB from Tennessee and a 0.85-rated EDGE from Arkansas arrived alongside him.2026 transfer portal
- They have to rebuild around 27 departures.2026 transfer portal
- Virginia Tech got the best of it — a 0.86-rated CB.2026 transfer portal
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for Troy at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
12 on the schedule with one of them against a top-25 team — 6 home, 6 away. From Week 3 they play 2 straight on somebody else's field.
- They travel to #20 Missouri in Week 3.
- Week 9 sends them to #71 James Madison.
- Week 4 at #82 Utah State is the road test.
- Week 1 begins it, at home against Sam Houston.
- Week 13 ends it, on the road at Arkansas State.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #100?
Weigh the evidence and rule on Troy's current case.
The arguments about Troy
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against South Alabama
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 3 at Missouri
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 9 at James Madison
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test Troy's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 100. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.
