BYU
Better than the record will show
No. 25 in team strength, No. 43 in projected wins. That 18-spot gap is the schedule, not the team, so 7-5 will read worse than they play.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Fringe preseason caseBYU opens on the Top 25 bubble at No. 25, and No. 4 in the Big 12. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
1.7 behind No. 24 Florida State0.2 clear of No. 26 South Carolina - 02
02What's helping them?
- Solid Team Strength66.0
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- No earned résumé yet
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
BYU is 1.7 Verdict points behind No. 24 Florida State — that's the gap to close.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So Far1-01 of 12 games completeProjected Finish7-525% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins7.2Bowl Odds86%Playoff Odds4%90% Range5-7 to 10-2Favored in 8 of the 11 still to play, yet 6 of the 11 could fall either way — which is why the likeliest finish is 7-5, at 25%.
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
vs ArizonaWeek 2 · Home · Verdict win probability 63%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Bear Bachmeier is back at QB after 3,033 passing yards (15 TD, 7 INT). LJ Martin (1,305 rushing yards) and Faletau Satuala (79 tackles) return with him. Parker Kingston (924 receiving yards) and Jack Kelly (10 sacks) are gone.
BYU's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
They finished 10-2 in 2025, scoring 346 and allowing 247: a 8.2-point average margin.2025
- BYU went shopping: 9 in, top of the class a 0.94-rated LB out of California.2026 transfer portal
- There is depth to the class too — a 0.91-rated TE from Oregon and a 0.9-rated TE from USC.2026 transfer portal
- That 8.2-point margin was 35th-best in the country in 2025 — the one part of this case already earned.2025
- 2 players went to the NFL Draft, and that production has to come from somewhere.2026
- A 0.86-rated LB is gone to Michigan.2026 transfer portal
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for BYU at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
12 on the schedule with 3 of them against top-25 teams — 7 home, 5 away. A 2-game road run opens in Week 3.
- Week 7 is #7 Notre Dame, at home.
- Week 10 sends them to #11 Utah.
- Week 5 sends them to #23 TCU.
- Week 1 begins it, at home against Utah Tech.
- Week 13 ends it, at home against Cincinnati.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Selected coverage from trusted sources. Opens at the original publisher.
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #25?
Weigh the evidence and rule on BYU's current case.
The arguments about BYU
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against Utah State
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 10 at Utah
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 7 vs Notre Dame
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test BYU's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 25. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.