Hawai'i
The record is going to flatter them
A 40-spot gap the other way — No. 86 in team strength, No. 46 in projected wins. The wins count, the opposition is the caveat, so 7-5 will read better than they play.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Building a caseHawaii opens at No. 86, in the bottom half of the field, and No. 2 in the MWC. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
0.8 behind No. 85 OhioLevel with No. 87 UTSA - 02
02What's helping them?
- Developing Team Strength40.7
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- A résumé still unwritten
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
Hawai'i is 0.8 Verdict points behind No. 85 Ohio — that's the gap to close.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So FarNo games playedThe record is blank until the first kickoffProjected Finish7-525% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins7.1Bowl Odds85%Playoff Odds<1%90% Range5-7 to 10-2On paper favored in 10 of 12; with 4 games balanced on a knife edge the single likeliest finish is 7-5 (25%).
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
at StanfordWeek 1 · Away · Verdict win probability 30%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board. Verdict has them at 30%, which makes a win the strongest evidence available this early.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Micah Alejado is back at QB after 3,106 passing yards (24 TD, 9 INT). Landon Sims (559 rushing yards), Jackson Harris (963 receiving yards), Peter Manuma (73 tackles) and Jackie Johnson III (6.5 sacks) are gone.
Hawai'i's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
- No published 2026 figures yet for returning production or coaching continuity. Rather than estimate them, Verdict counts neither.interpretation
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData.com
Statistical Record
No completed games for this season yet — the Statistical Record activates once games are played. Explore it live via the 2025 season.
The games that decide this case
12 on the schedule with none of them against the top 25 — 6 home, 6 away. 2 consecutive weeks away from home, starting in Week 8.
- They travel to #34 Arizona State in Week 6.
- Week 1 at #68 Stanford is the road test.
- They host #80 UNLV in Week 1.
- They finish Week 13 at home against Sacramento State.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #86?
Weigh the evidence and rule on Hawai'i's current case.
The arguments about Hawai'i
All arguments →“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against BYU
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 6 at Arizona State
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 1 at Stanford
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
“Give them the same circumstances and then compare them.”
On Nevada's schedule
“They're not going 10-2.”
Every game, one at a time
Test Hawai'i's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 86. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.