Colorado
A lot better than the record will show
No. 65 in team strength, No. 106 in projected wins — a 41-spot gap. The schedule takes games off this team that a softer slate would have handed them, so 5-7 will read worse than they play.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Building a caseColorado opens at No. 65, in the middle of the national field, and No. 15 in the Big 12. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
0.1 behind No. 64 Michigan State0.9 clear of No. 66 San Diego State - 02
02What's helping them?
- Developing Team Strength53.3
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- A résumé still unwritten
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
Colorado is 0.1 Verdict points behind No. 64 Michigan State — that's the gap to close.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So FarNo games playedThe record is blank until the first kickoffProjected Finish5-725% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins5.2Bowl Odds41%Playoff Odds<1%90% Range3-9 to 8-4On paper favored in 3 of 12; with 7 games balanced on a knife edge the single likeliest finish is 5-7 (25%).
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
at Georgia TechWeek 1 · Away · Verdict win probability 31%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board. Verdict has them at 31%, which makes a win the strongest evidence available this early.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Micah Welch is back at RB after 384 rushing yards (4 TD). Kaidon Salter (1,414 passing yards), Omarion Miller (807 receiving yards) and Tawfiq Byard (78 tackles) are gone.
Colorado's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
2025 ended 3-9, scoring 251 and allowing 366 — outscored by 9.6 a game.2025
- Best thing they did all offseason: a 0.94-rated WR in from Texas, part of a 42-man haul.2026 transfer portal
- Add a 0.93-rated S from Tennessee and a 0.9-rated LB from Texas to the haul.2026 transfer portal
- Gone to LSU: a 0.98-rated OT, the highest-rated name to leave.2026 transfer portal
- They were outscored by 9.6 a game last season on the way to 3-9.2025
- Heavy churn either way: 38 out, 42 in, 4 more than they lost.2026 transfer portal
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for Colorado at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
6 of the 12 are away from home, and 2 of them against top-25 teams. Week 3 is where the travel bites — 2 in a row on the road.
- #6 Texas Tech comes to them in Week 5.
- They host #11 Utah in Week 7.
- Week 10 at #34 Arizona State is the road test.
- The season starts Week 1 on the road at Georgia Tech.
- The finale is Week 13, at home against UCF.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Selected coverage from trusted sources. Opens at the original publisher.
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #65?
Weigh the evidence and rule on Colorado's current case.
The arguments about Colorado
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against Nebraska
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 10 at Arizona State
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 5 vs Texas Tech
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test Colorado's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 65. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.
