Colorado State
Better than the record will show
No. 101 in team strength, No. 118 in projected wins — a 17-spot gap. The schedule takes games off this team that a softer slate would have handed them, so 5-7 will read worse than they play.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Building a caseColorado State opens at No. 101, near the foot of the national field, and No. 8 in the Pac-12. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
0.5 behind No. 100 Troy0.1 clear of No. 102 Western Kentucky - 02
02What's helping them?
- Developing Team Strength34.9
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- The case awaits its first evidence
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
Colorado State is 0.5 Verdict points behind No. 100 Troy — that's the gap to close.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So FarNo games playedThe record is blank until the first kickoffProjected Finish5-724% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins4.7Bowl Odds29%Playoff Odds<1%90% Range2-10 to 7-5On paper favored in 3 of 12; with 4 games balanced on a knife edge the single likeliest finish is 5-7 (24%).
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
vs WyomingWeek 1 · Home · Verdict win probability 59%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Lemondre Joe is back at DB after 3.5 sacks. Jackson Brousseau (1,354 passing yards), Jalen Dupree (508 rushing yards), Rocky Beers (388 receiving yards) and Owen Long (148 tackles) are gone.
Colorado State's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
2025 ended 2-9, scoring 222 and allowing 342 — outscored by 10.9 a game.2025
- Best thing they did all offseason: a 0.87-rated TE in from UConn, part of a 31-man haul.2026 transfer portal
- Add a 0.86-rated CB from San José State and a 0.86-rated QB from Oklahoma State to the haul.2026 transfer portal
- They have to rebuild around 38 departures.2026 transfer portal
- The 2025 team lost the scoreboard by 10.9 a night. Nothing since has changed that on the field.2025
- Their best departure, a 0.91-rated LB, plays at Arizona State this fall.2026 transfer portal
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for Colorado State at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
12 games — 7 at home, 5 on the road, and one of them against a top-25 team. The road gets heavy in Week 11 — 2 straight away from home.
- They host #25 BYU in Week 3.
- Week 11 sends them to #50 Washington State.
- Week 8 is #66 San Diego State, at home.
- The season starts Week 1 at home against Wyoming.
- The finale is Week 13, at home against Pac-12 opponent — set by standings.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #101?
Weigh the evidence and rule on Colorado State's current case.
The arguments about Colorado State
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against Colorado
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 11 at Washington State
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 3 vs BYU
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test Colorado State's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 101. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.
