Jacksonville State
The record will look better than they are
No. 131 in team strength, No. 98 in projected wins — a 33-spot gap. The wins are real, but the schedule is handing them over, so 6-6 will read better than they play.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Building a caseJacksonville State opens at No. 131, near the foot of the national field, and No. 6 in the C-USA. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
1.1 behind No. 130 Missouri State0.9 clear of No. 132 Louisiana-Monroe - 02
02What's helping them?
- Developing Team Strength22.5
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- A résumé still unwritten
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
Jacksonville State is 1.1 Verdict points behind No. 130 Missouri State — that's the gap to close.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So Far0-11 of 12 games completeProjected Finish6-623% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins5.6Bowl Odds53%Playoff Odds<1%90% Range3-9 to 8-4Favored in 6 of the 11 still to play. 6 of the 11 are coin-flips though, and once every outcome is weighed 5-7 is the likeliest finish at 25%.
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
vs Eastern KentuckyWeek 1 · Home · Verdict win probability 79%Eastern Kentucky is not an FBS program, so this game never enters the résumé. It counts toward the record, at most one win like it counts toward bowl eligibility — and a loss would go straight into Case Weaknesses.
Who carries this case
Caden Creel is back at QB after 1,514 passing yards (9 TD, 4 INT). Deondre Johnson (724 receiving yards) and Mac Sanders (83 tackles) return with him. Cam Cook (1,666 rushing yards) and Emmanuel Oybadejo (4.5 sacks) are gone.
Jacksonville State's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
Last time out: 8-5, scoring 377 and allowing 340, ahead by 2.8 a game on average.2025
- They restocked — 20 in, headlined by a 0.86-rated S out of Clemson.2026 transfer portal
- Add a 0.86-rated IOL from Pittsburgh and a 0.85-rated IOL from Nevada to the haul.2026 transfer portal
- Gone to Florida: a 0.88-rated DL, the highest-rated name to leave.2026 transfer portal
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
The games that decide this case
12 games — 6 at home, 6 on the road, and none of them against the top 25.
- Week 2 sends them to #85 Ohio.
- They host #94 FIU in Week 7.
- They host #98 Georgia Southern in Week 3.
- The season starts Week 1 on the road at North Dakota State.
- The finale is Week 13, on the road at Delaware.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #131?
Weigh the evidence and rule on Jacksonville State's current case.
The arguments about Jacksonville State
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against Sam Houston
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 2 at Ohio
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 11 at Western Kentucky
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test Jacksonville State's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 131. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.