Sam Houston
The record will tell the truth
No. 137 in team strength, No. 135 in projected wins. The schedule is not tilting this one either way.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Building a caseSam Houston opens at No. 137 of 138 — the bottom of the board, and No. 10 in the C-USA. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
0.9 behind No. 136 Delaware7.4 clear of No. 138 Massachusetts - 02
02What's helping them?
- Developing Team Strength12.9
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- Nothing on the ledger yet
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
Sam Houston is 0.9 Verdict points behind No. 136 Delaware — that's the gap to close.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So FarNo games playedThe record is blank until the first kickoffProjected Finish4-825% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins3.7Bowl Odds11%Playoff Odds<1%90% Range1-11 to 6-6Favored in 2 of 12 — but 2 of those 12 games are close enough to go either way, so weighing every outcome the likeliest finish is 4-8 (25%).
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
at TroyWeek 1 · Away · Verdict win probability 17%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board. Verdict has them at 17%, which makes a win the strongest evidence available this early.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Landan Brown is back at RB after 487 rushing yards (5 TD). Chris Reed (460 receiving yards) returns with him. Hunter Watson (1,108 passing yards), Antavious Fish (78 tackles) and Christopher Eaton Jr. (5 sacks) are gone.
Sam Houston's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
They went 2-9 in 2025 and lost the scoreboard by 16.9 a game, scoring 213 and allowing 399.2025
- Sam Houston went shopping: 20 in, top of the class a 0.86-rated EDGE out of Boston College.2026 transfer portal
- There is depth to the class too — a 0.86-rated LB from NC State and a 0.85-rated DL from Arizona.2026 transfer portal
- A 0.92-rated OT is gone to Washington.2026 transfer portal
- Heavy churn either way: 15 out, 20 in, 5 more than they lost.2026 transfer portal
- 2025 ended 2-9, outscored by 16.9 a game — the hole starts there.2025
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for Sam Houston at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
12 on the schedule with one of them against a top-25 team — 6 home, 6 away. A 2-game road run opens in Week 4.
- Week 4 at #6 Texas Tech is the road test.
- Week 13 is a trip to #94 FIU.
- Week 1 sends them to #100 Troy.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #137?
Weigh the evidence and rule on Sam Houston's current case.
The arguments about Sam Houston
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against Jacksonville State
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 4 at Texas Tech
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 13 at FIU
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test Sam Houston's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 137. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.