Missouri State
The record will look better than they are
They sit No. 130 in strength but No. 108 in projected wins — a 22-spot gap the slate is paying for, so 5-7 will read better than they play.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Building a caseMissouri State opens at No. 130, near the foot of the national field, and No. 5 in the C-USA. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
Level with No. 129 Air Force1.1 clear of No. 131 Jacksonville State - 02
02What's helping them?
- Developing Team Strength23.6
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- The case awaits its first evidence
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
Missouri State is dead level with No. 129 Air Force on Verdict Score — the next result breaks the tie.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So FarNo games playedThe record is blank until the first kickoffProjected Finish5-726% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins5.2Bowl Odds41%Playoff Odds<1%90% Range3-9 to 8-4Favored in 4 of 12. 5 of the 12 are coin-flips though, and once every outcome is weighed 5-7 is the likeliest finish at 26%.
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
at No. 9 Texas A&MWeek 1 · Away · Verdict win probability 3%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board. Verdict has them at 3%, which makes a win the strongest evidence available this early.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Jacob Clark (3,244 passing yards), Shomari Lawrence (1,021 rushing yards), Alred Luke (640 receiving yards), Kanye Young (77 tackles) and DJ Wesolak (4 sacks) are gone.
Missouri State's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
None of last season's statistical leaders are on the current roster — this case is being made by new names.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
7-5 in 2025, scoring 305 and allowing 340, on the wrong side of a 2.9-point margin.2025
- A 0.86-rated EDGE out of Kansas fronts a 19-man portal class.2026 transfer portal
- Behind him: a 0.85-rated TE from Vanderbilt and a 0.85-rated IOL from Jackson State.2026 transfer portal
- The 2025 team lost the scoreboard by 2.9 a night. Nothing since has changed that on the field.2025
- Gone to Coastal Carolina: a 0.86-rated WR, the highest-rated name to leave.2026 transfer portal
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for Missouri State at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
The slate runs 12 games, one of them against a top-25 team. 6 of them are at home. The schedule sends them out for 2 in a row in Week 4.
- Week 1 at #9 Texas A&M is the road test.
- Week 4 sends them to #40 SMU.
- Week 10 is a trip to #94 FIU.
- They finish Week 13 at home against Liberty.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #130?
Weigh the evidence and rule on Missouri State's current case.
The arguments about Missouri State
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against North Dakota State
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 1 at Texas A&M
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 4 at SMU
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test Missouri State's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 130. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.