Texas State
The record will tell the truth
Strength and schedule agree here — No. 79 in team strength, No. 90 in projected wins. Expect the record to fit.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Building a caseTexas State opens at No. 79, in the bottom half of the field, and No. 4 in the Pac-12. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
Level with No. 78 Syracuse0.1 clear of No. 80 UNLV - 02
02What's helping them?
- Developing Team Strength43.8
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- A résumé still unwritten
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
Texas State is dead level with No. 78 Syracuse on Verdict Score — the next result breaks the tie.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So FarNo games playedThe record is blank until the first kickoffProjected Finish6-625% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins5.8Bowl Odds58%Playoff Odds<1%90% Range3-9 to 8-4Favored in 6 of 12
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
at No. 8 TexasWeek 1 · Away · Verdict win probability 8%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board. Verdict has them at 8%, which makes a win the strongest evidence available this early.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Brad Jackson is back at QB after 3,223 passing yards (21 TD, 7 INT). Beau Sparks (1,200 receiving yards) returns with him. Lincoln Pare (1,129 rushing yards), Treylin Payne (101 tackles) and Kalil Alexander (5 sacks) are gone.
Texas State's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
The 2025 ledger reads 6-6, scoring 433 and allowing 367, a 5.5-point margin per game.2025
- They restocked — 17 in, headlined by a 0.86-rated WR out of Mississippi State.2026 transfer portal
- Behind him: a 0.86-rated CB from Stephen F. Austin and a 0.86-rated OT from TCU.2026 transfer portal
- 21 departures. Until they prove otherwise, that is the question on this case.2026 transfer portal
- The most expensive loss is a 0.86-rated DL, now at Clemson.2026 transfer portal
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for Texas State at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
7 home dates, 5 road trips — one of them against a top-25 team. Week 9 is where the travel bites — 2 in a row on the road.
- Week 1 is a trip to #8 Texas.
- #50 Washington State comes to them in Week 12.
- They host #58 North Texas in Week 3.
- The finale is Week 13, on the road at Pac-12 opponent — set by standings.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #79?
Weigh the evidence and rule on Texas State's current case.
The arguments about Texas State
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against UTSA
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 1 at Texas
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 5 at San Diego State
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test Texas State's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 79. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.
