UTEP
The record will tell the truth
Strength and schedule agree here — No. 123 in team strength, No. 111 in projected wins. Expect the record to fit.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Building a caseUTEP opens at No. 123, near the foot of the national field, and No. 7 in the MWC. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
1.1 behind No. 122 Georgia State1.5 clear of No. 124 Akron - 02
02What's helping them?
- Developing Team Strength26.6
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- Nothing on the ledger yet
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
UTEP is 1.1 Verdict points behind No. 122 Georgia State — that's the gap to close.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So FarNo games playedThe record is blank until the first kickoffProjected Finish5-726% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins5.1Bowl Odds39%Playoff Odds<1%90% Range3-9 to 8-4Favored in 3 of 12 — but 9 of those 12 games are close enough to go either way, so weighing every outcome the likeliest finish is 5-7 (26%).
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
at No. 17 OklahomaWeek 1 · Away · Verdict win probability 5%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board. Verdict has them at 5%, which makes a win the strongest evidence available this early.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Skyler Locklear (1,418 passing yards), Ashten Emory (569 rushing yards), Wondame Davis Jr. (604 receiving yards), Micah Davey (114 tackles) and Udoka Ezeani (5 sacks) are gone.
UTEP's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
None of last season's statistical leaders are on the current roster — this case is being made by new names.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
The 2025 season finished 2-10, scoring 280 and allowing 365 — 7.1 a game in the red.2025
- UTEP went shopping: 21 in, top of the class a 0.86-rated RB out of Missouri.2026 transfer portal
- Also in the door: a 0.86-rated QB from Incarnate Word and a 0.85-rated DL from Northwestern State.2026 transfer portal
- 20 players left through the portal — 21 in, 20 out.2026 transfer portal
- A 0.87-rated WR is gone to Wake Forest.2026 transfer portal
- 2025 ended 2-10, outscored by 7.1 a game — the hole starts there.2025
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for UTEP at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
6 home dates, 6 road trips — 2 of them against top-25 teams. They leave home for 2 straight from Week 12.
- Week 3 sends them to #14 Michigan.
- They travel to #17 Oklahoma in Week 1.
- Week 10 is #86 Hawaii, at home.
- It closes Week 13 on the road at Northern Illinois.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #123?
Weigh the evidence and rule on UTEP's current case.
The arguments about UTEP
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against UTSA
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 3 at Michigan
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 1 at Oklahoma
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test UTEP's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 123. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.
