UTSA
The record will tell the truth
No. 87 in team strength, No. 83 in projected wins. What they are and what they finish should be the same thing.
- 01
01Why are they here?
Building a caseUTSA opens at No. 87, in the bottom half of the field, and No. 6 in the American. In the preseason that placement comes down to one thing: how good the roster projects to be.
Level with No. 86 Hawaii0.1 clear of No. 88 Miami (OH) - 02
02What's helping them?
- Developing Team Strength40.7
How good the team actually is — talent, roster and returning production.
0303What's hurting them?
- The case awaits its first evidence
What they have actually done — who they beat, who beat them, and how good those teams were.
- 04
04What would change Verdict's mind?
UTSA is dead level with No. 86 Hawaii on Verdict Score — the next result breaks the tie.
- Start playing to begin earning a résumé
- Beat a quality opponent to log a Statement Win
- String together dominant wins for Game Control
- 05
05Where are they headed?
Earned So Far1-01 of 12 games completeProjected Finish6-626% likeliest outcomeExpected Wins6.0Bowl Odds62%Playoff Odds<1%90% Range3-9 to 8-4Favored in 6 of 12
Schedule value · projected - 06
06What's next?
at Texas StateWeek 2 · Away · Verdict win probability 39%Until this game is played the case is built on projected strength and schedule — this is the first real evidence on the board. Verdict has them at 39%, which makes a win the strongest evidence available this early.
Test the matchup
Who carries this case
Owen McCown is back at QB after 2,990 passing yards (30 TD, 7 INT). Robert Henry (1,045 rushing yards), Devin Mccuin (726 receiving yards), Shadrach Banks (93 tackles) and Nnanna Anyanwu (5 sacks) are gone.
UTSA's 2025 statistical leaders, and whether they are still here. Recorded production only — Verdict does not grade a player.
Source: public roster and 2025 player statistics · production is a record, not a projection
What changed before a snap
6-6 in 2025, and they won the scoreboard by 4.2 a night — scoring 405 and allowing 355.2025
- A 0.86-rated S out of LSU fronts a 22-man portal class.2026 transfer portal
- They did not stop there: a 0.86-rated RB from California and a 0.85-rated EDGE from Bowling Green.2026 transfer portal
- 23 players left through the portal — 22 in, 23 out.2026 transfer portal
- The most expensive loss is a 0.87-rated EDGE, now at Virginia.2026 transfer portal
Real game evidence switches on the moment these teams actually play.· Data: CollegeFootballData API
Statistical Record
No completed games for UTSA at this point in the season.
The games that decide this case
12 games — 6 at home, 6 on the road, and one of them against a top-25 team. The road gets heavy in Week 2 — 2 straight away from home.
- Week 3 is a trip to #8 Texas.
- Week 6 is #32 USF, at home.
- Week 8 sends them to #55 Tulane.
- They start Week 1 at home against UT Rio Grande Valley.
- They finish Week 13 at home against Tulsa.
What this case is built on
New evidence from the wire
Link-only reporting from independent publishers. Opens at the source. Never affects any Verdict metric.
Do you uphold #87?
Weigh the evidence and rule on UTSA's current case.
The arguments about UTSA
All arguments →“Okay, but who have they actually played?”
The season they have actually played
“Yeah, we lost — but who did we lose to, and how?”
The season they have actually played
“Put them through our schedule and see what happens.”
Against Texas State
“Play that game at our place and it's different.”
Week 3 at Texas
“I'm telling you — they're getting upset.”
Week 8 at Tulane
“Nobody is getting through that stretch.”
Their worst three or four weeks
Test UTSA's case against the field.
Run the next matchup through the model, or put this team where you think it belongs.
Baseline established — No. 87. Every move from here is logged with its previous rank, its new rank and the evidence event that caused it. A case never moves without a traceable reason.